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Thursday, April 26, 2007

Nuggets Starters Run Out of Gas, Lose Game 2 to Spurs 97-88

As I expected, the Nuggets were not capable of a second miracle 5-man game deep in the heart of Texas. They were, in fact, unable to put up much of a fight against the Spurs at all. A.I., Melo, Nene, Camby, and Blake had an even bigger letdown from their huge game one performance than I thought they would have. In game 1, the Nugget's bench, with it's scarce minutes, was able to get 6 points, while in this game it exploded for 7 points. So predictably, the Spurs took game two 97-88, to even the series at one game each.

Coach Karl seems to think that the game is decided by who scores more points among the starters. If he were correct, the Nuggets would be up 2-0 in this series, as the big five starters for the Nuggets outscored PF Duncan, C Elson, SF Bowen, SG Finley, and PG Parker 81-67, after burying them 89-53 in game one. The Spurs bench totalled 94 minutes in this game while the Nuggets bench was given only 42 minutes. There are 240 player minutes to allocate in a game, so you can see that A.I., Melo, Nene, Camby, and Blake took up over 80% of the playing time by themselves. The Spurs starters took up about 60% of the playing time, leaving a generous 40% for the role players.

What George Karl is doing is exactly opposite what title winners such as Greg Popovich and Phil Jackson do. They generously rotate in every role player who can contribute from off the bench, while at the same time making sure that their key performers, in this case Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, do not run out of gas. With the possible exception of Iverson, the five players that Karl is over relying on are all subject to getting a little bit tired in the second half when they are left in for almost the entire game. More to the point, they are going to be a little more tired than the Spurs players on the court at any given time.

To be specific with regard to this game, Popovich had Duncan play 33 minutes and Parker play 38 minutes, while Karl had Melo play 44 minutes and Iverson play 45 minutes. In a tight game between two evenly matched teams, the fact that Iverson and Melo are a little more tired than Duncan and Parker could be the difference between winning and losing. In this game, neither A.I. nor Melo were fully feeling their jump shots, and they were both getting mangled on layup attempts at the hoop, so when the Spurs had the extra step on them later in the game, it just made a bad situation worse. By not resting A.I. and Melo for roughly half of the the 3rd quarter, the Coach blew an opportunity to see if J.R. Smith or Linas Kleiza could shoot the Nuggets back into the game.

About half way through the 4th, a weary Melo and a weary A.I. finally tapped that last small reserve of athletic adrenalin that they were saving for the last desperate minutes, but it was not enough. Iverson buried a three with 45 seconds left to make it 91-88 Spurs, but Duncan then calmly iced the win for the Spurs by making a little 9-foot banked jumper with 27 seconds to go for 93-88 Spurs. Anthony said after the game: "Tonight we showed that we're going to fight. Whether we're down 50 or we're down two, we're going to fight you until the last whistle blows." He might have added, "or until we drop from exhaustion". The Nuggets were literally outnumbered by the Spurs, who kept enough fresh role players on the court at all times to guard well their absolutely necessary victory.

George Karl refused to budge on his refusal to share substantial playing time outside of the five starters, with J.R. Smith not even playing quite a quarter and Linas Kleiza getting only 16 minutes. When they were playing 20-30 minutes a game, Smith was the key factor in at least 6 of the Nuggets 45 regular season wins this season, and Kleiza was the key extra factor in at least 4 of them, but such contributions are ignored by Mr. Karl in Scroogeland. Most coaches would be using Kleiza to give Melo some breathers and Smith to give Iverson some breathers.

Of course, many coaches would have Smith starting at shooting guard and Iverson starting at point guard, with Blake coming in from the bench. At one point earlier this season, Karl did start A.I. at the point and J.R. at SG, and it worked quite well. That ended in less than two weeks, though, when J.R. upset Karl's delicate sensibilities when he had a few too many turnovers and made a few too many bad-looking shots in two or three different games. Even the J.R. shots that went in were counted as a negative by the Coach, if they looked awkward or if they were taken when someone else had a better open look. In recent weeks, Smith has been late to practice a time or two, and late once for the team bus, which caused Karl to bury him even deeper on the bench. As for Kleiza, his main problem is that he is not A.I., Melo, Nene, Camby, or Blake, since Karl thinks that five should be enough. Also, Karl apparently worries that Kleiza is too young to be dependable in a high pressure playoff situation, which is one of those theories that only a pessimistic scrooge could adopt.

There is a parallel problem going on, due to Karl's refusal to play rebounding and in-the-paint defensive specialist Reggie Evans. Nene has gotten noticed by the entire basketball community for his ability to neutralize Tim Duncan, and Camby is a blocking and rebounding ace second to no one except maybe Kevin Garnett, but a big man such as Nene and a complex multi-dimensional center such as Camby can only play so many minutes before they start missing layups, missing blocks, and causing the refs to blow their whistles. In this game, a running low on gas Camby fumbled an open dunk with 1:52 to go that would have made the score 89-85 Spurs. Would Camby had blown that dunk if Reggie Evans had given him the kind of rest that most players his age and condition get? I seriously doubt it.

The game was like a big cry from the gang of five: "we need a little help here, George." Camby's blown dunk was just the tip of the iceberg. The starting five were able to make only 15 of 34 layups, which would be miserable for any junior high team, let alone a pro team playing for the ring which, ironically, Camby said during the day was attainable for the Nuggets this time around. Careful, Mr. Camby, that's alot easier said than done and you don't want to overwhelm everyone. It's supposed to be one game at a time, you know. Meanwhile, the Spur's starters made 10 of 13 layups, with the steady but cautious Duncan making 5 of 5. Overall, the Spurs made 16 of 24 layups, while the Nuggets frantically made only 16 of 37.

The Nuggets shooting was a pathetic 38.6% while the Spurs shooting was held to 43.8%. Other than the shooting, the rest of the production was remarkably equal between the two teams, a bad sign for the Spur's prospects in Denver. The Spurs were supposed to dominate in rebounding in this series, but both teams had 44 rebounds in this game, with Denver getting 14 offensive rebounds versus just 10 for the Spurs. The Nuggets, who just about led the League in turnovers this year, had a very reasonable 12 turnovers, while the Spurs, who had fewer turnovers than almost anyone, had 13. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili combined for 15 of the 20 Spurs assists, while Blake (7 assists) and Iverson (5 assists) combined for 12 of the Nuggets 17 assists.

Tim Duncan had five blocks and Marcus Camby had three. But the Nuggets beat the Spurs on steals 7-5. A.I. made three steals and Camby made two steals. SF Bruce Bowen made three steals for the Spurs.

From 3-point land, Melo, Iverson, and Blake all stepped up and made clutch 3-pointers, as the Nuggets actually did better from long range than from shorter range. In another sign that the Spurs are likely to lose the series, the Nuggets were able to keep the Spur's big 3-point shooting advantage to a minimum for the two games in San Antonio, despite the fact that Kleiza and Smith were non-factors.

So the Nuggets are standing or falling based on how just those five do, and they followed their incredibly outstanding performance in game one with a very weak three and a half quarters in this game, with a too little too late rally in the last half of the fourth quarter. The 4th quarter rally, at least, gave the Spurs a little bit of a scare, and informed them that the Nuggets are not going to go away quietly in this series.

No, this is going to be a six or seven game series. And I will now proceed to the good news, and reward with a big shot of confidence any Nuggets fan who has read this far and soaked up the bad news. The biggest story of all from this series so far is that the Spurs have played poorly in both of their home games. That is a major shock, and obviously means that the Nuggets can and should win both of the upcoming games in Denver, as long as they avoid a shooting disaster like the one that occurred tonight, which is little to ask for.

In a remarkable development, Nene, with some assistance from Camby, have neutralized Duncan two straight games in his building. As long as Nene and Camby keep hustling enough to keep harassing Duncan, who is overwhelmingly the go-to guy in the Spurs front court, the Nuggets in theory need only to avoid an A.I.-Melo combined shooting disaster to win both games in Denver. If one of those two is hitting, it will be close, but the Nuggets, with some assistance from extremely loud fans, would be favored. And if both A.I. and Melo are making shots, you can turn the lights out in San Antonio for this season.

Najera played 14 minutes and was 0/3 for 0 points, and he had 2 rebounds and an assist.

Kleiza played 16 minutes and was 2/4 and 1/3 on 3's for 5 points, and he had 1 assist.

Blake played 35 minutes and was 3/5 and 2/3 on 3's for 8 points, and he added 7 assists, 4 rebounds, and a steal.

J.R. Smith played 12 minutes and was 0/4, 0/3 on 3's, and 2/2 from the line for 2 points, and he had 3 rebounds.

Nene played 36 minutes and was 8/15 and 1/2 from the line for 17 points, and he had 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and a block.

Camby played 39 minutes and was 4/11 and 2/4 from the line for 10 points, and he also had 18 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 2 steals. This was well above Camby's normal playing minutes and well above the minutes played by comparable players in similar situations.

A.I. played for virtually the whole game and was 9/25 and 2/3 on 3's for 20 points, and he had 5 assists and 3 steals.

Melo played for virtually the whole game and was 8/21, 2/4 on 3's, and 8/9 from the line for 26 points, and he had 10 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 steal.

The next game, which will be game 3 of the series, will be Saturday, April 28 in Denver, against the Spurs, of course, at 6 pm mountain time.


IT WAS UNTHINKABLE THAT SPURS COACH GREG POPOVICH
WOULD BE SCROOGED BY GEORGE KARL TWICE IN A ROW













NENE ON TIM DUNCAN















NENE IS GENERALLY GETTING GOOD POSITIONING ON DUNCAN













A SLIGHTLY WEARY BUT DETERMINED IVERSON













A.I. FINDS A GOOD PLACE TO TAKE A BREATHER














IN BASKETBALL, THE BEST PLAYER ON THE COURT DOES NOT
ALWAYS WIN; FOR MORE INFORMATION, CHECK WITH KOBE BRYANT













MELO LEANS IN ON TIM DUNCAN













TIRED OUT BUT HEADING HOME, THE NUGGETS
ACHIEVED IN SAN ANTONIO WHAT WAS
NEEDED TO EVENTUALLY WIN THIS SERIES

Monday, April 23, 2007

A.I., Melo, Nene, Camby, & the Nuggets Stun Spurs 95-89

It was a titanic struggle, but the Titanic, in the end, went down, despite the fact that the Basketball Establishment was in complete agreement that the Titanic, otherwise known as the San Antonio Spurs, would never sink. True, it was only one game, but the Nuggets won with one hand tied behind their backs, as they played under Coach Scrooge with just 7 players playing 10 minutes or more, whereas the Spurs had 10 players playing 10 minutes or more. Incredibly, the Spurs bench outscored the Nuggets bench 36-6, whereas the Nugget's dream team of starters, minus Kenyon Martin, outscored the Spurs tried, tested, and well worn starters by an astonishing 89-53, surely one of the greatest such playoff routs in recent years.

Coach George "Scrooge" Karl seems to impart his scrooge-like ways on the Nuggets more and more with each passing week, and they have now been molded to be able to win basketball games with essentially no bench scoring at all, which is supposedly impossible in modern pro basketball. I would reckon it's been about 50 years since a team won a major playoff game with just 5 contributors. Well, "why bring other hands into the picture?," reasons any scrooge worth his salt. "They are liable to muck things up. And money can be saved if we just take J.R. Smith, Reggie Evans, and DerMarr Johnson off the payroll entirely, so let's just kick them off the team and be done with it."

Meanwhile, Coach Popovich of the Spurs had his worst fears, that his squad might be a little too long in the tooth to have an easy time of things against the extremely talented but extremely inexperienced and dubiously coached Nuggets, start to come true. No, Popovich will not be sleeping very well this week, because the Nuggets did not merely stun the Spurs and the entire Basketball Establishment, they blew up alot of assumptions and left them in a thousand pieces on the court. The Nuggets actually won this game by more than the raw score indicates.

How is this series likely to go from here, based on what is known now? There is little doubt that the Spurs will win game 2. Popovich will come up with new schemes and the Spurs will kick it into their highest gear to make sure they are not handled in their own building again. But the Nuggets, provided that most of the following keep happening, namely, that Melo and Iverson keep making jumpers at a fast pace, that Nene, with assistance from Camby, keeps doing a number on Tim Duncan, that J.R. Smith can get a disguise and sneak on to the court for games 3 and 4 in Denver, and that Kleiza can do a little better than the 0 of 5 from the field that he shot in this game, will likely be in full command of the proceedings in Denver, and are likely to return to San Antonio with a 3 to 1 game lead in the series for game 5 on Wednesday, May 2. The Spurs would be favored in that one, for old time's sake, whereupon the Nuggets can complete the 4 games to 2 massive upset on Friday May 4, in a Denver that will by then be having a huge case of basketball fever, with crazed fans ready to party long into the night.

That's my prediction and I am sticking to it. From this point forward, your Nuggets reporter is not accepting any criticism, from either himself or anyone else, that he is always too pessimistic about the Nuggets. On the other hand, I am warning you in advance that I will probably be predicting that the Suns, who will not be intimidated by the energy and the athletic talent of the Nuggets, will beat the Nuggets in the West's round of four.

And before anyone gets carried away, keep in mind that the Nuggets are one minor injury away from total disaster. George Karl has bet the ranch on A.I., Melo, Camby, and Nene. If any of these go out with an injury, well, don't expect Karl to have a plan to deal with it, let's put it that way.

When Charles Barkley, a former basketball star and now a commentator on the TNT cable network, was predicting that the Nuggets would go nowhere, he backed up his prediction by saying that the Nuggets have scoring, but they don't have a player or two who can get the key rebounds, who can get key stops, and who can generally slow down and harass big men such as Tim Duncan. Aside from overlooking the defensive skill of Marcus Camby, which was a monumental mistake in itself, Barkley was also apparently completely unaware of a power forward named Nene. Maybe this is because Nene is from Brazil, and Barkley and others can not conceive of a Brazilian as a big time power forward in the NBA. Well, PF all-star Tim Duncan and his Coach, Mr. Popovich, now understand that it is possible for a Brazilian to be a big time power forward in American basketball, because it is happening right before their eyes.

Although the Brazil guy was held to 13 points on 5 of 12 shooting, as Duncan was able to interfere with Nene's usual extreme effectiveness from point blank range, the Brazil guy returned the favor and held Duncan to 14 points on 7 of 17 shooting. Both of these gladiators, who the referees let fight it out with few interruptions for fouls, hounded each other to no end. Duncan had 10 rebounds, but Nene had 12. Duncan made three blocks, but Nene (1 block) and Camby (2 blocks) combined for three. So it was basically a bloody draw, which was a huge win for the Nuggets, because the Spurs came up way short when they tried to match what the dynamic duo, A.I., and Melo, were doing mostly outside of the bloody trench in the paint. Nene was the anti-Duncan, exactly the type of player Barkley had in mind when he said the Nuggets have no one like that, and so Mr. Barkley should apologize to Nene, and to the whole of Brazil if he is generous enough to go that far. I am picking on Barkley, but keep in mind that what Barkley said about the Nuggets was what most basketball observers were thinking, although most of them were not quite as harsh as he was. Everyone had Nene written off due to his serious knee injury and slow recovery, but in the end the power of his mind and body to heal won out.

Offensive rebounding was about even, but the Nuggets had 29 defensive rebounds versus 21 for the Spurs. Overall shooting was 35 of 77, for an accuracy of .455 for the Nuggets, and 37 of 88, for an accuracy of .420 for the Spurs. The Spurs shooting was worse than it looks, as their three top scorers, PF Duncan, PG Tony Parker, and SG Manu Ginobili were a combined 7 of 33 in the first half and 19 of 52 for the whole game. With all three of his best scorers out of sync, Popovich was left with a puzzle for which there was no solution.

The Nuggets dynamic duo of Melo and A.I. combined for 61 points on 21 of 40 from the field, while the Spurs dynamic duo of Parker and Ginobili combined for 28 points on 12 of 35 from the field. The old guard was rattled, could not figure out a way to become unrattled, and so they more or less surrendered in the 4th quarter of this game to the upstarts from the poor village in the hills. They retired to their castle to rest up and scheme battle plans for the next game.

Were it not for the fact that Denver was playing without a bench, this would have been a near rout, but Mr. Karl apparently feels that it would be too risky to play with a bench. "Why do so if you don't have to,?" reasons Mr. Scrooge. "A 4 or 6 point win is just as good as a 10 or 12 point win," he claims. "J.R. Smith? Don't know him and don't need to know him," continues the Scrooge. "We can do just fine without putting up alot of those crazy three-point shots that are more likely to miss than go in. And I could not care less that the Texas teams and most NBA Championship teams live off the 3-point shot. Living high off the hog like that is not good at all, and it's not for me, no sir."

Why bother arguing with him as long as the Nuggets keep winning?

This struggle of a game was played in the Spurs building and with the Spurs tempo. Therefore, the game produced very few fast break points. Denver had only 3 more turnovers than the Spurs did, 18 versus 15. The Spurs had 27 points off turnovers whereas the Nuggets had just 15, but this was offset by the Nuggets making 21 of 25 free throws, while the Spurs made 7 of 10. And so not only did Camby, Nene, and the Nuggets play effective defense, but they also played high quality defense, and were called for only 13 personal fouls, whereas the Spurs had 20.

Steve Blake, who is the one Nugget who can calm George Karl's nerves by his mere presence on the court, had a long introduction to the high pressure world of playoff pro basketball in Texas. He played most of the game, but made only 4 assists and had only 7 points on 3 of 6 shooting. He was there, he was learning, he didn't get in the way, he chose his shots carefully and, as a result, quietly helped the Nuggets in a small but significant way. And he kept George Karl calm and contented, which is important. The Nuggets had only 13 assists in total, as Melo and A.I. were hitting their shots and beating their defenders most of the night, and so were often happy with isolation plays. The Spurs had 22 assists, with Parker making 8 of them and Duncan making 7.

Fasten your breastplates well, for the nobles of the Alamo are going to be out for revenge on Wednesday, and it will probably get rather ugly for the Nuggets. But then the Nuggets will bring the nobles to their humble village for games 3 and 4, and it is then that they expect to finally win the hearts of their fans, to defeat the royal Spurs, and to continue on to battle the even mightier Suns in their desert kingdom.

Najera played 20 minutes and was 1/2 and 1/2 from the line for 3 points, and he had 4 rebounds.

Kleiza played 19 minutes and was 0/5, 0/2 on 3's, and 1/2 from the line for 1 point, and he had 4 rebounds.

Blake played 37 minutes and was 3/6 and 1/2 on 3's for 7 points, and he also had 3 assists, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals.

J.R. Smith played 5 minutes and was 1/3 and 0/2 on 3's for 2 points.

Nene played 38 minutes and was 5/12 and 3/5 from the line for 13 points, and he had 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block.

Camby played 37 minutes and was 4/9 for 8 points, and he had 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals.

Melo played 40 minutes and was 10/18, 2/4 on 3's, and 8/8 from the line for 30 points, and he had 8 rebounds and a steal. Melo was 4 of 6 on layups and dunks. 4 of 8 on two-point jumpers, and a surprising and clutch 2 of 4 on threes.

A.I. played for virtually the whole game and was 11/22, 1/3 on 3's, and 8/8 from the line for 31 points, and he had 5 assists, 1 steal, and 1 rebound. In a development that could make Iverson even more of a legend than he already is, Iverson has completed the circle and has returned to the miracle, too good to be true days of his first three years with the Sixers. He is hitting so many jump shots, 9 of 19 in this one, for example, that he does not need to risk an injury and wear himself out by charging to the hoop alot. But when he does penetrate to the hoop, he is getting his share of foul calls.

The next game, which is game two of the best of 7 series, will be Wednesday April 25 in San Antonio to play the Spurs at 5 pm mountain time.

POPOVICH NOW KNOWS WHAT IT'S LIKE TO BE SCROOGED










THAT GUY FROM BRAZIL THAT BARKLEY DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT











NENE HAS GOOD DEFENSIVE POSITION ON DUNCAN HERE














NENE SMOTHERS THE VETERAN FORWARD ROBERT HORRY













NENE SLAM DUNK













THE SPURS HAVE A DOUBLE TEAM ON MELO HERE,
BUT COULD NOT AFFORD TO DO SO VERY OFTEN,
WITH NENE, A.I., AND CAMBY ON THE LOOSE













FAST BREAK DUNK FOR MELO













MELO SPOTS UP AS THE FANS GET READY FOR MORE PUNISHMENT













CARMELO ANTHONY













ALLEN IVERSON













ALLEN IVERSON AND TIM DUNCAN













IVERSON GOES UP FOR A SHOT BETWEEN DUNCAN AND PARKER












FOR IVERSON, THE GOOD OLD DAYS HAVE COME BACK,
AND NOW THEY ARE THE BETTER GOOD OLD DAYS













MISSION ACCOMPLISHED















SYRACUSE, I MEAN DENVER, EXCUSE ME, LEADS THE TOURNAMENT 1 GAME TO NONE

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