Chucky Atkins: The Jury is Out

This is the Nuggets 1 response to the ESPN Chucky Atkins 2006-07 evaluation and 2007-08 outlook.

The more I think about it, the more worried I get about an Atkins-Iverson backcourt. Not only is it too small but, if Atkins is a usually slow and Iverson is a sometimes gambling and always small defender, you have an even worse guard defense than last year with Blake-Iverson or even Smith-Iverson. I see the Atkins-Iverson pairing as another Big Whopper rotation mistake coming down the tracks. Especially since Karl will probably compound the problem by (a) maximizing the Atkins-Iverson combo playing time and (b) using (a) to avoid the extra coaching and practice work needed to play A.I. at the point and bring in better defenders at the 2.

Then again, since Hollinger was so wrong about Melo and Iverson, maybe he will be wrong about Atkins; maybe Atkins will do about as well this year as last. Memphis may have been desperate for his services, but the Nuggets, given enough guard injuries and defensive failures, are going to be just about as desperate. Hopefully, Atkins will attempt to rescue the Nuggets just as he did the Grizzlies.

Chucky Atkins ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Chucky Atkins 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for the Nuggets 1 response to appear next.

Chucky Atkins

2006-07 season: A few years ago, I came up with something called the "fluke rule" to describe players having a season that was way over their heads who were destined to come back to Earth. I hardly could think of a better example of this rule in action than Atkins in Memphis last season.

The three characteristics of a fluke rule year are (1) a player aged 28 or older, (2) having a player efficiency rating of at least 14, and (3) having his PER increase by 3.00 or more from the previous season. These players, as a group, see their PER decrease the next season by almost exactly 3.00, with the correction being less sharp for 28-year-olds than their older brethren.

In 2005-06, for example, three players qualified for the fluke rule - Mike James, Chauncey Billups and Alonzo Mourning. All three saw their PERs decline sharply, especially James.

Well, Atkins was this year's Mike James. Stuck on a dead-end team and playing for a new contract -- much as James was a year earlier -- Atkins blew away his previous career bests in several categories despite being 32 years old. His PER of 17.45 was more than four points better than he'd done in any other NBA season; his shooting percentage was his best in six years; and his scoring rate of 19.1 points per 40 minutes shattered his previous best of 16.8, which was set half a decade earlier.

And as a result, he's one of the main standouts of this year's fluke rule team (see chart). Seven players qualified, and based on history we should expect at least six of those seven to see performance declines this season. The two 28-year-olds, Devin Brown and Jamaal Tinsley, should expect to have the least steep declines (especially Brown, who only made the birthday cutoff by 48 hours); Tim Duncan's decline also should be less steep because he had achieved that level of performance two years earlier -- the "fluke", in his case, might be the off year in 2006-07.

But the others should see their PERs decline by three or more points in 2007-08. Unlike in past years, this seems to have been priced into the market. New Jersey wouldn't commit to Moore and ultimately Sacramento signed him (though at a somewhat extravagant price); Patterson and Brown got little interest on the free-agent market; and Armstrong may be replaced despite his resurgence last year.

That had an impact upon Atkins, too -- his stellar play only got him a two-year deal for less than the midlevel exception. Perhaps that's because he toiled in such a backwater all season -- as did everyone on this list besides Duncan -- but it's still refreshing to see.

Scouting report: Because of his size, Atkins tends to struggle at the defensive end, especially when matched up against bigger guards. Although he can make up for some of his (literal) shortcomings with veteran savvy and still-decent quickness, that weakness could be a bigger liability with the Nuggets because he'll be paired with the 6-0 Allen Iverson. He's also a poor rebounder who had the fifth-worst rebound rate in basketball last year.

However, he's a deadly shooter (37.0 percent on 3s for his career) who ranked fourth among point guards in true shooting percentage, and he also protects the ball -- he had the eighth-best turnover ratio at the position. The latter was no fluke either; he's consistently among the leaders in that category.

And he's not just a jump shooter either -- Atkins showed enough speed to get to the rim. In fact, he did that more than ever last season. In the previous two years, just under 30 percent of Atkins' shots came near the basket; last season it was 41.1 percent.

2007-08 outlook: Atkins signed a two-year, $6.6 million deal with Denver in the offseason and will likely be the team's starting point guard. The Nuggets were in desperate need of shooting, and he provides an inexpensive long-range bomber to make opponents pay for doubling Carmelo Anthony and Iverson. It also saves them millions in comparison to holdover Steve Blake, who was looking for more money and ended up signing with Portland, because of the luxury tax implications.

Although Atkins is unlikely to repeat his effort in Memphis a year ago, the Nuggets will be happy if he can replicate his performance of two years earlier as a Laker. That season he took advantage of all the attention on Kobe Bryant to hit 38.7 percent on 3-pointers and average 13.6 points per game; if he does that here the Nuggets can knock a big item off their checklist.

Most similar at age: Dana Barros

Kenyon Martin ESPN Evaluation & 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Kenyon Martin 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. See the October 17 post titled "Marcus Camby ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook" for our take on the prospects for the Nuggets front court. There really is little to say about K-Mart at this point. Everybody is waiting to see whether one of the most extensive rehabs in the history of sports, from microfracture surgery on both knees, will result in a successful return for him or not. No one knows in advance, so you can't predict anything right now.

Hollinger at ESPN says...

Kenyon Martin

2006-07 season: Martin played only two games before checking out to have microfracture surgery on his left knee, which makes him the first known player to have the procedure done on both legs.

Scouting report: Premicrofracture, Martin was one of the league's most explosive forwards around the basket. That and a good dollop of toughness helped make up for what he lacked in stature and shooting ability. It remains to be seen how much of that leaping ability he still has, but he's expected to be on the opening day roster.

2007-08 outlook: Martin will be in the rotation in the early part of the year at the very least, as the Nuggets try to figure out how much he has left after the surgery and what type of role he can fill. Although the odds of him starting again are remote, he has a good chance to carve out a niche on the second unit if his legs don't betray him.

Marcus Camby, the Denver Front Court, and the Surprise

This is the Nuggets 1 response to the Hollinger ESPN evaluation and prediction for Marcus Camby.

I don't really have a substantial complaint to make on this one, it all seems on point.

Especially on point is the point that Camby needs to be combined with a physical big man to produce an effective inside defense. The expensive Brazilian, Nene, is supposed to fill that role, and there is bad and good news on Nene heading into the new season. The bad news is that he's been out for most of camp with a calf strain, and that he has been overweight coming into the season, just like last year. But last year he was coming off knee surgery, and his knee was all too frequently still hurting. The good news is that, this year, his knee has had one more year to be rehabbed. The other good news is to recall that, when he got into his groove last season, he was sometimes too much for even the likes of Tim Duncan to handle. "Nene is back" became a lockerroom rallying cry for the Nuggets last year. And if his knees and calves cooperate, and he sheds some fat pounds, we can expect him to be able to be Camby's needed assistant up front. On Nene, the good news is bigger than the bad as of now.

And all that assumes that Kenyon Martin gets little playing time on his rehabbed knees. To the extent K-Mart gets the burn, Nene keeps the pounds off, and Camby dodges the injury bullets, the Nuggets will have the big 4 front court they have been dreaming of and working hard on since the 44-120 record of 2001-03. As Hollinger implies, a fully intact and working Denver front court would be good enough to present a serious obstacle in the way of any of the Texas teams, the Suns, or the Jazz from easily knocking the Nuggets out this season.

The thing I most like about Camby is that he is a calm, serious, thinking player who is never going to allow another player, team, offense, or defense to get under his skin and cause him to lose concentration. He is unflappable. The intensity and control of his mind and body he uses for his shot blocking, rebounding, and defense in general make him sort of a non-Asian with martial arts skills applied to basketball. I, for one, vote for a Rockets-Nuggets West final this year; Yao versus Camby alone would be priceless, to say nothing of the other matchups.

Could what I am seeing in Camby be the mental toughness that Coach Karl claims the Nuggets in general lack? I'm not sure, because that term is a little too vague for me to be sure what it means, and the Coach has certainly not explained himself enough. But I will continue in my never ending quest to figure out what Coach means whenever he starts using philosophy words.

Camby came under alot of fierce criticism for taking too many midrange and longer jump shots from hard core Nuggets fans last season but, as Hollinger reports, his shooting improved from the prior season and, at .473, wasn't bad enough to demand that he be traded. If he just banged for layups all the time like his detractors want, he would be injured and out of action in no time. Of course, that's what his detractors actually, secretly want.

As of the beginning of the season, I see no reason not to be content, for now, with the Melo + Camby + Nene combo for the front court cake, and whatever we can get from K-Mart for the icing on the cake.

Oh, and the Nuggets have a front court surprise for the West. It isn't going to be a surprise for very long, so I'm not harming anything by revealing what that surprise is. The name of the surprise is Bobby Jones.

Marcus Camby ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Marcus Camby 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for a Nuggets 1 response, probably within 24 hours.

2006-07 season: Camby showed the first signs of aging last year: He forgot to get injured. The big man shocked the masses by playing 70 games for only the second time in his career, setting a career high in minutes and used his shot-blocking expertise to win the league's Defensive Player of the Year award.

While that honor may have been a bit of an overreaction, he was certainly impressive. Camby saved the bacon of Denver's guards with amazing frequency, racing in from the weak side to record the second-best rate of blocked shots among centers. He also controlled the glass, ranking sixth among centers in rebound rate.

Camby was at his best when he could guard a nonscorer and roam. In a late season game against Utah he was allegedly guarding the Jazz's Ronnie Brewer, but left him alone on the perimeter to hang out in the paint and go after blocks and ended up swatting five in the first quarter. That tendency gets him in trouble when he guards better players, though.

Offensively, Camby stopped hoisting so many 17-footers from the top of the key, apparently realizing the idea was for him to dump the ball into the post from that spot. His assist ratio nearly doubled from the previous season and ranked third among all centers, while the portion of his shots that were long 2s dropped from 45.8 percent to 34.1 percent. In a related story, his shooting percentage and true shooting percentage both went up.

Scouting report: Despite myriad injuries, the rail-thin Camby is as quick and active at 33 as he was when he entered the league. Though he doesn't have the muscle to bang with bigger centers, he is a force on the boards and an incredible layup eraser from the weak side. The shift to smaller, quicker lineups has helped him immensely, as does the pairing with a more physical big man in Nene who can handle strength matchups.

Camby is an excellent ball handler for his size and will occasionally lead the break or drive against a slower big man from out high. More often he gets his points in transition or on feeds from his guards. He frequently posts high and likes to shoot from the free-throw area, where he has a long wind-up on his behind-the-head shot and iffy results. A bad foul shooter as a younger player, he's improved quite a bit and has made better than 70 percent each of the past four seasons.

2007-08 outlook: The question with Camby is never how well he'll play, but how often. Last year the Nuggets got lucky when he stayed in the lineup most of the year, but Camby misses multiple games every year with all types of ailments and this season should be no exception.

When he's on the court he should be just as productive as he's been the past few years, but that might be a more rare phenomenon than it was last year. Nuggets fans should expect 55-60 games and be happy if they get more, but as long as Camby is on the court come May, he could take the Nuggets on a deep playoff run.

Most similar at age: Elden Campbell

Stop Blaming Allen Iverson For the Nugget's 4-1 Loss to the Spurs

This is the Nuggets 1 response to the Hollinger ESPN evaluation and prediction for Allen Iverson.

Hollinger seems to see a tortured soul everywhere. Iverson is many things, but a tortured soul he is not. He is consistent in this views and comfortable in his skin. No Mr. ESPN, there isn't going to be any melodramatic conflict played out in Iverson's mind about whether he should continue to play just like he did in Philly. Philly is history. For those who would listen, he has stated in several post trade interviews that his overwhelming goal is to win a Championship, and he is willing to make any and all adjustments in his game necessary to do so. And he proved last season that he actually can and will make those adjustments. Of course, what those adjustments are going to be are not all or even mainly going to be decided by Iverson, but will be decided by the coaching staff of the Nuggets. And that is where the problem lies.

The reason Iverson ramped it up in the playoffs is that he was given a total green light to do so by George Karl, who wanted to avoid the traditional smothering of the Nuggets by the endless double and occasional triple teaming of Melo. Karl considers Iverson to be the ultimate floor general, even though the Coach has been like a mule with respect to the obvious strategy of playing Iverson at the point and avoiding the defensive liability of a too small and/or a defensively challenged backcourt when Iverson is at the 2. Karl did not produce backups ready to contribute in the playoffs. In fact, he all but butchered the potential of the second stringers. So with no faith in the backups, and having told Melo to worry more about defense and rebounding, he only had A.I. left to provide the winning scoring margins. That strategy was an utter failure.

As with too many of the Coach's strategies, it was too simplistic a strategy, as Popovich and the Spurs were more than smart enough to shift their main defensive harassment efforts over to Iverson. They knew that Melo did not have the complete green light offensively that Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant and A.I. had, and they adjusted accordingly. That's just what you would expect from one of the best coaches in the NBA, Greg Popovich, a man who deserves Championships if there ever was one.

With respect to threes, I will agree that Iverson took a few too many threes. It was mostly because the Nuggets were starved for three-point shooting and, later in games, because he became too tired for a lot of charges to the hoop.

Hollinger at ESPN seems amazed by the large drop in Iverson's player efficiency rating, and implies that all of a sudden Iverson may be too old to be the star player that he has been. What is there to be amazed about? Iverson is playing with Carmelo Anthony for god's sake. And for those who would listen, he has stated exactly what he is about these days, and it isn't about maximizing his player efficiency rating. He's about working with Melo and the more dubious components of the Nugget's organization in the quest for the ring, and making any adjustments that are obvious, and those that he is specifically called upon to make by the coaches and, perhaps, by Melo.

And while it is obvious that Iverson is no longer a spring chicken, it's over the top to fear that he is no longer capable of the lightning cross cuts and charges through holes he is famous for. If he is now 90% or 95% as fast as he was 10 years ago, that's still plenty fast enough for the job at hand. You just have to avoid the trap that Karl fell into, which is expecting that he can play 45 minutes a game and be dribbling the ball on almost every damn play. As long as you don't wear him out, A.I. remains one of the top 3 or 4 backcourt weapons in the NBA.

Karl wore him out, plain and simple.

Allen Iverson ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

From ESPN, here is the Allen Iverson 2006-07 evaluation and the 2007-08 outlook. Look for a Nuggets 1 response, probably within 24 hours.

ALLEN IVERSON ESPN EVALUATION & OUTLOOK

2006-07 season: Iverson showed unusual restraint immediately after joining the Nuggets. The Answer averaged a career-low 18.9 field-goal attempts per game after the trade, nearly six a game less than he was taking in Philly, but his assist numbers stayed the same. Then the playoffs started and all that went out the window. Iverson overdribbled into one contested jumper after another, taking more than 20 shots in every game but making only 36.8 percent as the Spurs knocked out Denver in five games.

One hopes that Iverson will learn from this. In Philadelphia he developed the instinct to do it himself when things got tough, because he sure as heck wasn't getting much help from other sources. But on this team, he's the No. 2 threat, and all those one-on-five forays were just keeping the ball out of Carmelo Anthony's hands.

Despite taking markedly fewer shots in Denver, he didn't make a higher percentage -- which is odd, since removing all the high-difficulty hoists at the end of the clock that he took in Philly should have had a salutary effect on his shooting percentage.

Iverson turned 31 before last season, and his results indicated he may be starting to slip. Iverson's player efficiency rating dropped more than six points from the previous season, one of the biggest dips in the league, and although some of that could be expected based on the jump in PER he'd had a year earlier, nobody foresaw a drop of that magnitude. Only six players saw their mark drop more than Iverson, and none were anywhere near his universe as a player.

The last three star guards to have a drop of his magnitude were Kevin Johnson in 1997-98, Penny Hardaway in 1997-98, and Stephon Marbury in 2005-06. None of them bounced back, so this may be the new normal for Iverson. If so, that's still a heck of a player, but he'll need to tone it down a lot offensively and defer to Anthony more regularly.

Scouting report: Iverson is one of the quickest and fastest players to play the game, something that allows him to penetrate defenses almost at will. The book is to force him to go left, where he's more likely to pull up for jumpers rather than go all the way to the basket and draw fouls or make layups. The crackdown on carrying last season hurt him a bit, but he remains as good as anyone at creating offense at the end of the shot clock.

Iverson isn't nearly as good from outside as he is on the drive, and he still tends to shoot too many 3-pointers. He's improved as a passer in recent seasons though, and it's possible he'll see as much or more time at the point as he does at shooting guard.

Defensively, Iverson is great in the passing lanes but his tendency to gamble often compromises the defense. Despite his quickness he's a mediocre on-ball defender and rarely gets in good help position. His main trick is to try to draw push-off calls by snapping his head back after brushing arms with an opponent, but he only gets the whistle about once very three flops (and no, I didn't track this stat specifically, but thanks for asking).

2007-08 outlook: Based on what's happened to other quick guard in their 30s, and on how Iverson's numbers decline a year ago, it's quite possible we're looking at a new phase in his career. He's still a deadly scorer and a terror in transition, but he's more likely to end up with a PER in the high teens and a scoring average in the low 20s. The key is whether he's ready to make that adjustment -- the way he handled the regular season says yes, but his playoff performance indicates it might be a fight.

Most similar at age: Tim Hardaway