J.R. Smith ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation & 2007-08 Outlook

Here is the Hollinger ESPN J.R. Smith 2006-07 evaluation and 2007-08 outlook. Nuggets 1 will, of course, have a response soon.

J.R. Smith

2006-07 season: Stolen from the Hornets before the season, Smith showed both tremendous talent and tremendous immaturity in his third pro season, and those two forces still appear locked in a duel to decide which will direct the rest of his career. For the first two months he was outstanding, but seemed to lose his mojo after earning a 10-game suspension for having the temerity to let New York's Mardy Collins tackle him from behind on a layup attempt.

After that point, the trade for Allen Iverson cut heavily into his minutes, and Smith didn't seem to adjust as well to coming off the pine. He was even worse in the playoffs, drawing the ire of coach George Karl for his ill-chosen shots and dawdling defense.

But if you just take a step back and look at his season as a whole, Smith did pretty darn well. He averaged 22.1 points per 40 minutes, one of the best rates in the league, and improved his shooting percentage by focusing on taking open 3s rather than the contested 2s he was launching as a Hornet. Smith hit 39 percent from downtown, helping loosen up defenses used to sagging with impunity against Denver. He finished with the 9th-best true shooting percentage among shooting guards and ranked 20th in player efficiency rating.

Scouting report: Smith plays like he learned everything about defense from watching Carmelo Anthony. He's great in the passing lanes, but his effort comes and goes and if he did any more cherry-picking he'd be eligible for agricultural subsidies. For somebody who doesn't play much D he also fouled quite a bit, ranking 13th among shooting guards in fouls per minute -- he'll have to ease up on the reaching when he's defending good players.

Offensively, Smith is reminiscent of the Wolves' Ricky Davis, but with far more shooting range. He has one of the best strokes in the game already and should only get better with more practice and experience. He's a good foul shooter, too, and should learn how to use his body to draw fouls when he penetrates. In addition to the shooting, Smith is an explosive finisher in transition; however, his off-the-dribble game in the halfcourt needs work.

2007-08 outlook: This is a huge year for Smith. He's playing for a new contract and needs to show that he can be trusted to get through a season without having any meltdowns; the past two campaigns haven't helped him in that regard. Karl has already shown more patience with him than he has with many other young players, but he'll have to have an incident-free season to keep his rotation spot.

If he behaves, though, it's hard not be excited about his potential. Smith is playing in a system that is virtually guaranteed to generate lots of wide-open 3s for him, and if he plays with even a modicum of passion he's likely to get plenty of minutes because the Nuggets are thin in the backcourt. If you're looking for a sleeper candidate for the Sixth Man award, you could do a lot worse than this guy.

Most similar at age: Kobe Bryant

Nene is a Gamer and a Keeper

I'm going to agree with Hollinger across the board on his Nene analysis. In a word, Nene was huge last year, and allowed the Nuggets to emerge from the "you fools paid way to much for Nene" syndrome. "Nene is back" was a rallying cry in the Denver lockeroom last year.

As Hollinger states, the most amazing thing of all about Nene was that he just kept getting better and better as the season went along, until he was giving Duncan all he could handle in the series. And, it has to be noted, Nene was playing through pain in alot of games last year. The Brazilian is a gamer and a keeper.

We just need for Nene to keep the fat off and to avoid any further knee or leg problems. Is that too much to ask?

If it's not too much to ask, I'd also like to ask that K-Mart's knees hold out for the whole season and that Camby be sidelined for no more than a dozen games. Thanks in advance God.

Nene ESPN 2006-07 Evaluation and 2007-08 Outlook

Here is the Hollinger ESPN 2006-07 evaluation and 2007-08 outlook of Nene. Nuggets 1 will make a few observations within hours.

Nene

2006-07 season: The Nuggets were ridiculed for signing Nene to a six-year, $60 million deal before the season began, but got the last laugh when the Brazilian big man stormed back from knee surgery to have what his easily his best season as a pro.

He hit a career-best 57 percent from the field, and shot selection played a big role in his success. Nene took 92.8 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area, which is important because he's terrible once he gets a few feet away -- he only made 25 percent of his non-layups, which was the worst mark in captivity (If you're wondering, he just missed the 100-attempt threshold for the chart in the Fred Jones comment). But he attempted half as many shots from that range as he'd done two years earlier, forcing his shooting percentage upward.

That wasn't the only change, though. Players don't normally come back from knee surgery as improved rebounders, but Nene set a career-high in rebound rate. Perhaps that's because he appeared much bigger physically; clearly he spent some of his down time in the weight room. His numbers improved as the year went on, as he got in better shape and regained his instincts. After the All-Star break he shot 64 percent.

Scouting report: Nene is one of the quickest big men in basketball, which allows him to beat opposing big men in transition or on drives and get in position for dunks. He uses that quickness on the defensive end to annually have one of the best rates of steals among centers -- last year he was seventh -- and help his guards out in pick-and-roll situations.

Nene isn't as sharp in help situations from the weak side, and he's not much of a leaper so his blocked shot totals are ordinary. But he's really improved as a post defender, giving Tim Duncan fits during the first-round playoff series with his size and a newfound physicality.

Offensively he still needs to refine his post game and develop a go-to move; right now he really struggles if he has to shoot more than a few feet from the basket. His jumper is mediocre at best and could also use some work.

2007-08 outlook: Although he's been around a while, Nene is only 25 and should just be entering his peak years. He may not be able to match last season's sizzling shooting percentage, but his other numbers should continue to gently improve, and the overall effect should be a season of similar quality to last year's.

However, there's also a chance he'll exceed that by a substantial margin -- usually a player's second year back from knee surgery is far better than his first, and Nene's numbers after the break last year tend to support that. If the knee effect outweighs the shooting percentage effect, the Anthony-Nene-Camby frontcourt could be one of the two or three best in basketball.

Most similar at age: Brian Williams