Game Preview: Nov. 17: Knicks at Nuggets

KEY FOR STARTERS
Position Number Name
Height Weight
PPG RPG APG FG% (Points, Rebounds, & Assists Per Game, Field Goal Shooting %)
Recent Highlights

NUGGETS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward 15 Carmelo Anthony
6-8, 230
2007-08: 25.7 5.0 5.2 .453
Is averaging 29.3 ppg in the Nuggets six wins, however just 18.3 ppg in their three losses so far this season. Has scored 10+ points in 138-straight games, which ranks as the second-longest active streak in the NBA.


Power Forward #4 Kenyon Martin
6-9, 240
2007-08: 8.5 5.1 0.4 .477
Posted a season-high 14 points on .778 (7-9) shooting from the field in 23 minutes vs. Portland on 11/14. Has tallied five or more rebounds in six of his seven appearances this season, despite averaging just 22.1 mpg.


Center #23 Marcus Camby
6-11, 235
2007-08: 9.8 13.2 3.2 .514
With his 13 rebounds vs. Portland on 11/14, he has now pulled down 10+ boards in eight of Denver’s nine games. His 3.3 apg average currently leads all NBA centers so far this season, as does his 1.73 assist-to-turnover ratio.


Shooting Guard #5 Yakhouba Diawara
6-7, 225
2007-08: 4.9 1.8 1.1 .471
Is 6-1 as a starter so far this season (.857), after going just 8-11 (.421) in his 19 starts as a rookie last season. Is 5-1 as a starter so far this season (.833), after going just 8-11 (.421) in his 19 starts as a rookie last season.


Point Guard #3 Allen Iverson
6-0, 165
2007-08: 25.0 3.2 8.0 .454
Joins LeBron James and Baron Davis as the only players to currently rank in the Top-10 in both points and assists. Scored a season-high 37 points while shooting .700 (14-20) from the field vs. Cleveland on 11/12.


KNICKS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward #23 Quentin Richardson
6’6” 235
2007-08 7.3 5.7 0.9 .333
Scored seven points and had six rebounds in 28:24 at LA Clippers, Nov. 14…Scored 19 points and had seven rebounds in 42:11 vs. Orlando, Nov. 9…Scored seven points and had three rebounds in 21:46 vs. Denver, Nov.6…Scored six points (2-5 3-PT FG) and had two rebounds in 35:51 at Cleveland, Nov. 2.


Power Forward #42 David Lee
6’9” 240
2007-08: 10.3 8.8 1.1 .492
Scored a career-high 24 points (8-12 FG) and had a season-high 16 rebounds in 49:54 at Sacramento, Nov. 16…Scored 14 points and had 14 rebounds in 39:05 of starter action vs. Miami, Nov. 11


Center #34 Eddy Curry
6’11” 285
2007-08: 19.3 7.5 0.6 .610
Ranks among the league leaders in FG% (.610, 64-105 FG)…Scored 27 points and had nine rebounds in 34:18 at Sacramento, Nov.16…Scored 24 points and had eight rebounds in 34:40 vs. Denver, Nov.6…Scored 18 points and had seven rebounds in 32:55 at Cleveland, Nov. 2.


Shooting Guard #11 Jamal Crawford
6’5” 200
2007-08: 19.6 3.0 5.4 .400
Ranks among the league leaders in minutes per game (41.5)...Scored 25 points and had eight assists and five rebounds in 44:04 vs. Denver, Nov. 6…Scored 24 points and had seven assists in 42:00 vs. Minnesota, Nov. 4


Point Guard, #25 Mardy Collins
6’6” 220
2007-08: 2.0 1.3 1.3 .300
2007-08: Averaging 2.0 points and 1.3 rebounds in 15.0 minutes per game…Started and scored four points and had two assists in 18:41 at Sacramento, Nov. 16…In his first
game action of the season, scored two points and had three rebounds and two steals in 20:47 vs. Miami, Nov.11.


TEAM STATS COMPARED

Points Per Game:
Denver...108.3
New York..99.6

Field Goal Accuracy
Denver....475
New York..437

Rebounds Per Game:
Denver....44.8
New York..44.5

Assists Per Game:
Denver....24.1
New York..17.8

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

OUT: Anthony Carter suffered a 3rd metacarpal fracture on his right hand and underwent successful surgery on 10/10. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks
OUT: Chucky Atkins suffered a severe right groin strain at Phoenix on 10/25 and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.
OUT: Nene suffered a torn ulner collateral ligament in his left thumb at Boston on 11/7 and underwent successful surgery on 11/9. He is expected to miss six weeks.
OUT: Steven Hunter underwent successful arthroscopic surgery on his right knee on 11/16 and is expected to miss six weeks.

KNICKS INJURY REPORT:

OUT: Jerome James: Left Knee Tendinitis/Right Foot Bone Spur & Cyst
QUESTIONABLE: Zach Randolph: Personal Reasons
QUESTIONABLE: Reynaldo Balkman: Sprained Right Ankle

ON THE AIR:

Tonight’s game will be televised on Altitude with Chris Marlowe calling the action and Scott Hastings providing analysis. The game will also be broadcast on KKFN AM 950, with Jerry Schemmel doing the play-by-play and Jason Kosmicki hosting the studio courtside.

KEY MATCHUPS:

SG Jamal Crawford vs. J.R. Smith and Yakhouba Diawara One of the few chances the Knicks have to win this game is if Jamal Crawford gets 24-30 points, 7-10 assists, and some rebounds, to at least match what he accomplished against the Nuggets in New York 11 days ago. At the same time, the Knicks will have to hope that J.R. Smith has one of his off nights and that Diawara doesn't do much offensively as well. Crawford is too quick to be effectively guarded by Diawara on every possession. There has been alot of Nuggets news that has seemed too good to be true, or too good to last, lately, and one such news story is Diawara's scoring. However, Diawara has a history of teasing fans with some scoring and then becoming a very bad shooter again. Whether Diawara can keep his modest but important scoring going is an important factor for the Nuggets, who are much more desperate than most teams for scoring by reserves, because when the reserves don't score they are benched completely by George Karl, and benched players never score.

C Eddy Curry vs. Marcus Camby PF Zach Randolph is apparently not playing due to a death in his family; PF David Lee will be the substitute starter. Lee is average at best and will have a difficult time against Kenyon Martin. 11 days ago in New York, the Knicks got alot of second chance points in the paint while substantially denying Carmelo Anthony and other Nuggets both penetration to the hoop and second chance scores of their own. Since Nene is still not available, one of the only ways the Knicks could compete in this game would be to try to repeat what they did in that game, but since Randolph is out, Curry and Lee would both have to have huge scoring, rebounding, and defending games in the paint.

NUGGET'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Stay cool and confident. I’m going to have to keep including this key until the Nugget's players and coaches maintain their confidence more consistently. They also need to avoid the drama from having criticism and dirty laundry in the newspapers. And they need to avoid ugly off-court incidents. Yeah, I'm looking at you when I say that, J.R. Smith.

Avoid the temptation of taking too many 3-point shots. Quite honestly, I think the Nuggets got off to a lucky start for 3-point shooting, and there is the risk that players such as Diawara, Najera, Kleiza, and maybe even Iverson will attempt too many 3-pointers. Let's not get carried away, especially in this game. I am a little worried about that ugly 1/13 on threes shooting against the Trailblazers carrying over into this one. But there is no need for 3-point heroics in this game, because the Knicks most likely can not beat the Nuggets whether or not the Nuggets make some threes.

Get on the boards and deny the Knicks as many offensive rebounds as possible. The Knicks, at least if Zach Randolph is playing, are one of the better rebounding for second chance scores teams in the NBA, and the Nuggets without Nene are one of the worst teams for denying second chance scores from offensive rebounds. But with Randolph out, this is a golden opportunity for Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Carmelo Anthony, and Eduardo Najera to prevent that kind of thing from happening.

KNICK'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Double team Melo or Iverson, usually Melo. There is a reason most teams do this. You want to double Melo unless Iverson is killing you, in which case you probably should start doubling Iverson and going for steals off him. Also, you should always try to get Melo into foul trouble, because the reward is huge if you succeed.

Bring in the co-star of the Knick's soap opera, Stephon Marbury, as soon as possible. There is nothing to lose, because the Knicks can not win with Mardy Collins playing alot of minutes. Maybe Marbury will be fired up from this past week's soap opera, and will make alot of shots. Or, if the Knicks can not play Marbury much, tell Nate Robinson and Jamal Crawford to try to keep the Knicks in the game by hitting some threes.

Penetrate to the hoop as much as possible and get as many second chance points as possible. It worked 11 days ago, and the Nuggets still are vulnerable to this, but it's going to be more difficult to do with Randolph out.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

Zach Randolph's grandmother has passed away and so it appears that the extremely important Knick Randolph will not play. I don't know about and don't care about the details, but it appears that PG Stephon Marbury has now officially become the J.R. Smith of the New York Knicks, the black sheep in other words. Wasn't it a hoot when Marbury told the press that he has "alot of stuff on Isiah"? Why couldn't J.R. Smith have thought of that tactic to try to save his job last year? Because George Karl, unlike the Knick's coach, is a model citizen and a gentleman. (See, I don't always criticize Karl.)

To top it off for the Knicks, F Reynaldo Balkman is out with a sprained right ankle. So the Knicks have managed to be just as shorthanded as the Nuggets, who remain without PF Nene and their two designated point guards, Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter. But the Nuggets are used to playing without those three by now, whereas the Knicks are going to be in a state of disarray if not outright confusion. One thing that is not confusing to me is that the Knicks need another new coach.

The Knicks played last night in Sacramento and the Nuggets have had two nights off.

The Knicks have virtually no chance to win this game. It's that simple. The only way the Knicks win is if the Nuggets play their worst game of the season right here. Both Melo and A.I. would have to be off, and the Knicks would have to clean up again on the offensive boards even though they don't have Randolph. Also, the Knicks would have to hit a substantial number of threes and Jamal Crawford would have to score and assist alot. The odds on all of those things happening are about 1 in 100.

The only other way for the Nuggets to blow it that I can think of would be for the Nugget's coaches to go back to playing just 8 players for substantial minutes in the game, and then getting too little output from the 3 non-starters. But George Karl likes Bobby Jones and Jones is the 9th guy, so that is unlikely.

So now that I jinxed it by predicting a near certain win, I will be sweating it out all game that the Nuggets are going to blow it. I should never, ever, predict a Nuggets win, but I could not resist in this case.

DON'T TICK ME OFF MORE THAN USUAL GK
Every so often, a player is benched or has his minutes cut way back, to under 10 minutes, for no apparent reason. That happening again is what I'm worried will tick me off big time one of these days.

Nugget's Day Off and 4-Game Winning Streak Videos

ALLEN IVERSON, CARMELO ANTHONY, GEORGE KARL INTERVIEWS AND OTHER GOOD CONTENT VIDEO

Videos: Nuggets 110 Trailblazers 93

More videos can be found below all the posts on this page, and there is a huge selection of videos on the +Nuggets 1 Videos page

The Nuggets Easily Defeat The Trailblazers-Oden 110-93, But What Will Happen When the Wolf is at the Door?

In what was a relatively boring game where the Trailblazers-Greg Oden never tried to get anything going in the paint, and played too much zone defense for their own good, the Nuggets led from halfway through the 1st quarter, built their lead gradually the whole rest of the game, and defeated the Trailblazers-Greg Oden 110-93. Any team with an extremely important player out due an injury should be renamed “Team Name-Injured Extremely Important Key Player Name,” just so you know. It’s only fair. Had Oden been playing, this would have been one of those games where the Nugget’s turnovers and vulnerability to second chance scores would have had them on the brink of losing. It’s true that Nene is out for the Nuggets, but he seems to always be out, and he is not at Oden’s level.

This is going to be the easiest home stand of the season for the Nuggets. Three of the four games are played with the team coming in having played the night before, whereas the Nuggets had the night before to rest and plan up. First the Cavaliers, then last night’s Trailblazers, and then the Knicks on Saturday night came or will come to town having played the night before. Aside from the uneven amount of rest factor itself, you have added to that the Denver high altitude factor, which tends to slow teams that are not used to it down a little bit and make their shots off by that inch that can change a hit to a miss. PG Jarrett Jack had this to say about the set-up for this game: “It has an effect. It's even worse because of the altitude. You can't get used to the altitude in a couple of hours time. That's asking too much."

The Blazers had no one to stop Kenyon Martin from dunking on them all night. Martin was 6/6 at the hoop, and 7/9 overall for 14 points, his best offensive output so far. Even more importantly, K-Mart was even better on defense in general and on low post defending in particular this game than in recent games, in which he was already very good. Martin had two steals, a block and a dunk in a 49-second stretch in the 2nd quarter, which was when the Nuggets established a fairly large lead over the Blazers. Martin played 23 minutes on the rehabbed knees.

But there wasn’t a whole lot of in the paint defending to do, as the Blazers tried and failed to make their very good jump shooting, including 3-point shooting, work for them. The Blazers came in over 40% from downtown, but left at about 38%, as they could make only 4 of 19 long range shots. Had they made the 8 that they were capable of, the game would have been a real contest from that alone, especially since the Nuggets could not buy a 3-pointer, as they went 1/13. Jarrett Jack was 3/6 and Brandon Roy was 1/3 from long range, but Steve Blake, last year’s Nugget’s PG and Tony Parker victim, was 0/4 and the rest of the Blazers were 0/6. With this game factored in, the Spurs have now moved back in front of the Nuggets in made 3-point shots, which has been the case since about the turn of the century. But all the Nuggets have to do is stay within a single made 3-pointer per game to avoid badly losing out to the Spurs in this important aspect of the game.

Even the PF LaMarcus Aldridge was shooting jumpers all night, and he did make some short jumpers, missing the midrange ones. Aldridge overall was 5/11 for 15 points. PG Jarrett Jack continued his good jump shooting this season in this game, but never made an inside shot and never got to the free throw line. The other Portland PG, Steve Blake, also known as “Owned by Tony Parker,” has been even worse a shooter so far this year than last year for the Nuggets; in this game he was 0/6 with 4 assists in 30 minutes. Blake did play some defense, though.

But the really big disaster for the Blazers was the poor output from Brandon Roy. He couldn’t get 2 layups, was blocked on another, made 3 of 9 jumpers, and finished with only 10 points on 3/12 overall in 28 minutes. His recent great games have not translated into his being the go-to guy in a tough game like this. Had the Blazers given Roy the kind of preference that Melo and A.I. get on the Nuggets, they might very well have been able to make a challenge for this game.

So the Nuggets won the game in the paint. They outscored the Blazers there 56-32. Overall, the Blazer’s jump shooting squad was 32/82 for 39.0%, while the Nugget’s, who had an offense balanced between inside and outside shooting, were 42/80 for 52.5%.

The Nugget’s coach’s new willingness to allow two mistake-prone but fast and dynamic players to play in the same game, Bobby Jones and J.R. Smith, has restored to some extent the status of the Nuggets as a running team. The Nuggets outscored the Blazers on fast breaks 21-11. Aside from getting the right players out there, you need to get more than your share of steals and turnovers in general to be a good running team, and the Nuggets did this in this game also, even though the Blazers, unlike the Nuggets, are normally careful with the ball. Both teams committed 17 turnovers. The Nuggets made 13 steals off the Blazers while the Blazers made 11 off the Nuggets. J.R. Smith led with 3 steals, and 8 other players had 1 or 2 steals each for the Nuggets.

After the game, both Carmelo Anthony and Iverson were quoted on the subject of steals and good defending in general allowing the Nuggets to run and produce more on offense. Melo: “Our defense is allowing us to get out on the open court. We don't want to play five-on-five basketball. We know if it's five-on-five, I'm going to get double-teamed." And Iverson: "Defensively, I think we made our presence felt. We were able to rebound the basketball and get out. When we rebound or get steals or get our hands on a lot of balls, then we are tough to beat because we get a chance to run out and make things happen."

Smith made a top of the key jumper, missed both 3-pointers attempted, and made 2/5 inside shots and all 4 free throws for a total of 3/8 for 10 points on shooting. He had a worse than usual 4 turnovers, but I really believe that you have to pay the J.R. Smith turnover and personal foul taxes if you want to have a solid chance to upset someone in the playoffs.

The stunning new willingness of the Nugget’s coaches to use 1-2 more players effectively in a game than they ever have in the last few years continues to be the biggest news of the new season. Carmelo Anthony won the NCAA Championship on a team that shared the playing time wealth in this fashion, as most of the better College teams do. So he’s alright with sharing the possession and playing time wealth on the Nuggets, and he’s averaging 5.2 assists a game this season, which is 3 ½ times the assists that the average forward makes.
PG Mike Wilks returned from an injury this game, and Iverson’s playing minutes have come down from the ridiculous, but Iverson continues to run things regardless of whether he is officially playing point guard or not. There are only 6 point guards in the League with more assists than Iverson right now. Iverson is effectively the point guard even when he is not playing the position, as long as he keeps getting a lot of possessions, which seems to be inevitable.

So the whole season may come down to whether George Karl can stay as logical and reasonable as he has been the last week or so. Whether he can have a rational and logical reason for being upset, as was the case at halftime in the Indiana game, and whether he can have a proportional and effective response to situations like that, instead of throwing the baby out with the bath water by, for example, attacking a player in the media and/or by completely or almost completely benching a player who made a few disturbing mistakes in a game, but whose positives outweigh his negatives.

In other words, when the Spurs, Rockets, or Suns are at the door, will the Coach cower in fear that his team can not possibly beat them because it does not have the “mental toughness,” whatever that is? Or will he let Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, and Allen Iverson answer the door? Kenyon would say to Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, and Shawn Marion, “Go ahead fools, make my day.” Melo wouldn’t say anything because he wouldn’t boast about his team but instead would wait for the results to speak for themselves. A.I. would say “You have to find a way to beat us and it is not going to be easy. We’re not talking about practice.” And Karl would be trying to decide whether he should be afraid of the wolves at the door anymore, and whether he should bench Kenyon Martin, Bobby Jones, J.R. Smith, or no one, for the rest of the playoffs.

This whole season is about trying to get George Karl to not be afraid anymore. So don’t answer the door when the Rockets, Suns, or Spurs come knocking, George. Let your team answer the door.

Mike Wilks played 14 minutes and was 2/4 and 1/1 on 3’s for 5 points, and he had 1 steal, 1 assist, and 1 rebound. Eduardo Najera played 22 minutes and was 3/5, 0/2 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 8 points, and he had 6 rebounds and an assist. Yakhouba Diawara played 22 minutes and was 2/6, 0/2 on 3’s, and ¾ from the line for 7 points, and he had 3 rebounds and 2 assists.

Linas Kleiza played 22 minutes and was 4/5, 0/1 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 10 points, and he had 9 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 assist.

Bobby Jones played 10 minutes and was 2/3 and 0/1 on 3’s for 4 points, and he had 1 steal.

J.R. Smith played 25 minutes and was 3/8, 0/3 on 3’s, and 4/4 on 3’s for 10 points, and he had 5 assists, 3 steals, and 1 rebound.

Kenyon Martin played 23 minutes and was 7/9 and 0/1 from the line for 14 points, and he had 4 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 steals, and an assist.

Marcus Camby played 30 minutes and was 2/3 and ½ from the line for 5 points, and he had 13 rebounds, 5 blocks, 3 assists, and a steal.

Iverson played 34 minutes and was 8/19, 0/1 on 3’s, and 4/4 from the line for 20 points, and he had 7 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, and 2 rebounds.

Anthony played 34 minutes and was 8/15, 0/2 on 3’s, and 9/10 from the line for 25 points, and he had 4 assists, 4 rebounds, and a steal.

The next game will be Saturday, November 17 in Denver to play the Knicks at 7 pm mountain time. The Knicks will be playing on back to back nights while the Nuggets will have two days off.

Game Preview: Nov. 14: Trailblazers at Nuggets

KEY FOR STARTERS
Position Number Name
Height Weight
PPG RPG APG FG% (Points, Rebounds, & Assists Per Game, Field Goal Shooting %)
Recent Highlights

NUGGETS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward 15 Carmelo Anthony
6-8, 230
2007-08: 25.8 5.1 5.4 .445
Has scored 10+ points in 138-straight games, which ranks as the second-longest active streak in the NBA. Recorded his first double-double of the season with 32 points and 10 rebounds at Indiana on 11/10.


Power Forward #4 Kenyon Martin
6-9, 240
2007-08: 7.7 5.3 0.3 .429
Has tallied five or more rebounds in six of his seven appearances this season, despite averaging just 22.1 mpg. Pulled down a season-high-tying seven rebounds while playing a season-high 27 minutes at Indiana on 11/10.


Center #23 Marcus Camby
6-11, 235
2007-08: 10.4 14.0 3.3 .507
His 3.3 apg average currently leads all NBA centers so far this season, as does his 1.73 assist-to-turnover ratio. With five blocks at Indiana on 11/10, Denver is now 3-0 this year when he has 5+ blocks (33-7 since 2005-06).


Shooting Guard #5 Yakhouba Diawara
6-7, 225
2007-08: 4.6 1.6 1.0 .500
Is 5-1 as a starter so far this season (.833), after going just 8-11 (.421) in his 19 starts as a rookie last season. Topped 10+ points for the second time this season with 11 points in 11 minutes at Indiana on 11/10.


Point Guard #3 Allen Iverson
6-0, 165
2007-08: 25.6 3.4 8.1 .458
Scored a season-high 37 points while shooting .700 (14-20) from the field vs. Cleveland on 11/12. Denver improved to an impressive 13-1 all-time when Iverson has a double-double with their win at Indiana.

TRAILBLAZERS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward # 8 Martell Webster
6-7 235
2007-08: 13.3 4.6 1.6 .452
LAST GAME: Notched a career-high nine rebounds to go with five points and two assists in 36 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Counts two 20-point games ... Shooting 45.2% from the floor and leads team with 13 3-pointers ... Ranks third on team at 13.3 points per game.


Power Forward #12 LaMarcus Aldridge
6-11 240
2007-08: 19.6 8.0 0.6 .518
LAST GAME: Netted second double-double with 22 points (9-16 FG) and 10 boards in 37 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Tied a career high with 30 points Nov. 9 vs. Memphis ... Ranks among NBA leaders with 19.6 points and 8.0 rebounds ... Scored 20-plus four times.


Center #44 Channing Frye
6-11 245
2007-08: 5.1 4.1 0.9 .487
LAST GAME: Totaled six points, four rebounds, one assist and one steal in 19 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Recorded season-highs of eight points, seven rebounds Nov. 7 vs. New Orleans ... Is averaging 5.1 points and 4.1 rebounds per contest


Shooting Guard #7 Brandon Roy
6-6 211
2007-08: 20.6 3.0 5.3 .513
LAST GAME: Tallied 20 points (9-16 FG), three rebounds, one assist and one steal in 37 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Scored 20-plus five times ... Leads team with 20.6 points per game ... Tallied a career high 32 points Nov. 10 vs. Dallas


Point Guard #2 Steve Blake
6-3 172
2007-08: 5.0 3.1 6.1 .417
LAST GAME: Dished out a team-high eight assists to go with one point, two rebounds and one turnover in 19 minutes ... NOTEWORTHY: Ranks No. 1 in the NBA with a 6.14 assists-to-turnover ratio ... Is averaging a team-best 6.1 assists per game.

TEAM STATS COMPARED

Points Per Game:
Denver...108.1
Portland..95.1

Field Goal Accuracy
Denver....468
Portland..478

Rebounds Per Game:
Denver....44.6
Portland..40.9

Assists Per Game:
Denver....24.0
Portland..20.9

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

OUT: Anthony Carter suffered a 3rd metacarpal fracture on his right hand and underwent successful surgery on 10/10. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks
OUT: Chucky Atkins suffered a severe right groin strain at Phoenix on 10/25 and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.
OUT: Nene suffered a torn ulner collateral ligament in his left thumb at Boston on 11/7 and underwent successful surgery on 11/9. He is expected to miss six weeks.
PROBABLE: Mike Wilks suffered a right hamstring strain vs. New Orleans on 11/4 and has missed each of the last five games. He is considered probable for tonight’s game.

TRAILBLAZERS INJURY REPORT:

OUT: Josh McRoberts-left ankle
OUT: Darius Miles-right knee
OUT: Greg Oden-right knee
DAY TO DAY: James Jones-left knee is day-to-day.

ON THE AIR:

Tonight’s game will be televised on Altitude with Chris Marlowe calling the action and Scott Hastings providing analysis. The game will also be broadcast on KKFN AM 950, with Jerry Schemmel doing the play-by-play and Jason Kosmicki hosting the studio courtside.

KEY MATCHUPS:

SG J.R. Smith vs Brandon Roy J.R. Smith finally had the kind of breakout game he had often a year ago, but his defense is not going to be good enough against Roy. Let's just hope that Smith does not overreact to Roy, lose his cool, and start turning it over a alot, start getting alot of fouls, and/or start taking a bunch of wild shots. Smith should continue to mix up drives and long range shots. It's Karl's job to get the right defender on Roy at all times; Diawara and Bobby Jones will do a much better job than Smith.

PF Kenyon Martin vs LaMarcus Aldridge With Oden out, Aldridge is the front court mainstay for the Blazers. He can score, he is an alright rebounder, and a good free throw shooter. Martin is still not there with respect to jump shooting, and he will have to get some second chance scores at the hoop to have a good night offensively. How Martin does defensively against Aldrige will be even more important than how he does in scoring for the Nuggets.

NUGGET'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Stay cool and confident. I’m going to have to keep including this key until the Nuggets maintain their confidence more consistently. Portland can easily take a double digit lead in the 1st half of this game, and the Nuggets need to go about their business without worrying about what the refs are doing and about just how good the Blazers might be.

Cut down on blown defensive coverages The Nuggets are going to want to play man to man for the most part, and they need to have enough defensive intensity to prevent the Blazers from having the big jump shooting night that they are capable of, including on 3-point shots. Diawara and Bobby Jones will be important.

Avoid alot of mistakes, keep the turnover count down for a change. Portland is by far the worst team in the League with respect to forcing turnovers, so if the Nuggets, who are just about the worst in turning it over, turn it over a lot to this team, they will have only themselves to blame, as the Blazers have the capability to take advantage of turnovers with fast break scores.

TRAILBLAZER'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Double team Melo or Iverson, usually Melo. There is a reason most teams do this. You want to double Melo unless Iverson is killing you like he did the Cavaliers the other night, in which case you probably should start doubling Iverson and going for steals off him.

Hit a lot of 3-point shots. The Trailblazers are accurate from 3-point land, so they should take advantage of the many good looks the Denver defense will give them from long range.

Get a significant number of second chance opportunities. Both teams are very vulnerable to second chance scores. The Blazers are going to have to get more offensive rebounds than usual if they are to have a good chance to win this game. Aldrige, Frye, and Przybilla will have to beat Camby, Martin, and Melo to get a lot of offensive boards and second chance scores.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

The Trailblazers come to Denver with no night off after having won 4 straight at home, including against the Dallas Mavericks Saturday night and the Detroit Pistons last night. Brandon Roy has been on a tear and is an extremely dangerous shooter. He's sort of a smaller and a little less aggressive version of Carmelo Anthony offensively.

Overall, the Blazers are not a rebounding team, and unlike most Nugget's opponents, they won't get alot of second chances for scores. This team lives and dies mostly on the jump shooting of Roy and PG Jarrett Jack. The Trailblazers are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, but they haven't capitalized on that to any extent so far. The primary threats to look out for in 3-point shooting are Brandon Roy and Martell Webster, with Jarrett Jack and James Jones secondary threats. G Sergio Rodriguez can hit clutch shots and can sometimes explode in a game.

Generally the Nuggets are going to have a substantial advantage over smaller, less powerful up front, poorer rebounding teams. Channing Frye apparently is starting at center, but you will see alot of Joel Przybilla who is a better rebounder. Camby and Kenyon should be able to get the job done tonight without too much trouble. If Greg Oden were playing, the Trailblazers would be truly dangerous, even playing with no rest. But he isn't playing, so this is the Nugget's game to blow. They blew many games against middle and lower teams, like this one, at home last year, and several of the ones they didn't blow completely were close calls. Tonight we find out more about how much that has changed.

DON'T TICK ME OFF MORE THAN USUAL GK

The world did not come to an end when you ran a 9-man rotation. You have a big edge over Portland, so don't go back to a 7 or 8-man rotation for this game. If everyone is healthy, give a 9th man 10-11 minutes and keep A.I. under 40 minutes.

Videos: Nuggets 122 Cavaliers 100

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Iverson, J.R. Smith, and The Nuggets Roll Over LeBron James & the Cavaliers, 122-100

Allen Iverson got a standing O for an outstanding night of scoring and assisting, Carmelo Anthony rose to the Nene is gone again occasion by pulling down 9 rebounds, and J.R. Smith exploded for 0 turnovers, 4 assists, 7 of 8 threes, and 29 points, as the Denver Nuggets rolled over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers from start to finish and won the game 122-100 for a 5-3 record. The Nuggets, led by Allen Iverson, shot a lights out .550 from the field, while the Cavaliers were just .419. Iverson had one of his best games yet as a Nugget. He assisted for 8 scores, had 2 steals, made more than half his jump shots, made almost all of his layups, got to the line 4 times, missed only 1 free throw, got the standing ovation, and was not overworked by Karl for a change. “Now about that Championship, Allen.” The Nuggets fought the powerful rebounding duo of C Zydrunas Ilgauskas and PF Drew Gooden to a draw, and closed off all of the possible ways that heroics from LeBron James might have pulled this game out with energetic defending and passing. James was contained right along with the Cavalier’s rebounders. James made 4 assists and 1 rebound to go along with his 27 points on 9/16 shooting.

The Nuggets are a team where sometimes lack of confidence goes before the fall, but they were confident from the start they could beat the Cavaliers and, when they did, upped their record to 7-2 in head to heads over them in the LeBron James era. So all those who say James is much better than Anthony will have to continue to not dare to bring up head to head contests in support of their arguments.

It could have been an even bigger win had the Nuggets not squandered about half a dozen fast break opportunities, mostly with passes that were too high or too strong. For the first time in memory, the Nuggets finished with less than the average number of turnovers for a team in a game, 1 less, anyway. And in a rare event, the Nuggets had fewer turnovers than their opponent, 13 versus 14.

Marcus Camby got a lot of help in rebounding in this game, despite the absence of Nene due to thumb surgery. Aside from Melo’s 9 boards, Bobby Jones, Kenyon Martin, and J.R. Smith all helped out to keep the dangerous Cavalier rebounders and second chance opportunities for Cleveland under control. The Cavaliers did get a big 17 offensive rebounds, but they would have needed more offensive boards dominance to have gotten motivated to make the game a contest.

Cleveland starting SG Larry Hughes, thinking that he was fouled by Melo several times with no call, said something really nasty to a referee and was given a double technical and ejected with 7:42 left in the 1st quarter. Hughes is off to a bad start and was taking his frustrations out from that start as much as from the perceived no calls.

The Nuggets, due to scrooge-like player usage and inconsistency among the reserves, often end up with terrible production from the non-starters. The rule of thumb is that the Nuggets will usually win if the non-starters total at least 15 rebounds and 30 points. In this one, the reserves made 15 rebounds and scored 46 points, with J.R. Smith by himself getting 1 shy of 30 points.

The Bobby Jones-J.R. Smith combo playing so well was shocking to see not because they are not great players, because I knew they were. It was shocking because it was considered so unlikely that Karl would give good minutes to both of these young turnover and foul prone players on the same night. Both Jones and Smith have substantial negatives, but their positives are going to very frequently exceed their negatives in a game. Basketball was neither designed as nor intended to be a game where being too afraid of negatives is rewarded. Both coaches and players are supposed to go out there and give it all they have and let the chips fall where they may, not sit around like Hamlet and be afraid to make moves.

So anyway, Bobby Jones played 23 minutes and had 6 rebounds and 2 assists to go with 8 points on 3/6 shooting, including 1 of 2 from downtown. And he played some nice man to man on LeBron James, who partly because of that defense, and that of Yakhouba Diawara, did not go to the hoop much at all in this game.

All 4 of the Texas and Arizona teams live off the 3-point shot. Those top teams of the West average between 7 and 10 made threes a night, with an accuracy ranging from 37%-40%. The Nuggets in this game were 12/22 from long range for an accuracy of .545. The Nuggets, who were a not good enough for the West playoffs 16th best team in made threes last year, are now the 7th best team this year, still well behind the leading Suns but, amazingly, a little ahead of all three of the Texas teams.

It’s way to early to think the Nuggets can stay ahead of the Spurs, Rockets, and Mavericks in this key component of winning a playoff series, but a fan can dream that this will continue. After all, it’s by no stretch just J.R. Smith who is doing well on threes. The Nuggets now have just as many players as the Spurs hitting on at least 1/3 of their three point shots, namely, 7 players. Along with Smith, the Nuggets have Linas Kleiza, Iverson, Yakhouba Diawara, Bobby Jones, Eduardo Najera, and Carmelo Anthony himself hitting 1/3 or better of the golden threes.

The 5 teams who are off to a great start in long-range shooting who are ahead of the Nuggets but behind the Suns right now are the Magic, the Raptors, the Warriors, the Grizzlies, and the Hornets. The early leaders among players in big 3 shooting are Ray Allen of the Celtics, Peja Stojakovic of the Hornets, and Rashard Lewis of the Magic. All three of them are burying about half of their attempts so far. But so is J.R. Smith. Since Smith has played only slightly more than half the minutes of Allen, Stojakovic, and Lewis, he is behind them in actual made threes. But if you look at the non-traditional statistic of made threes per minutes played, Smith is just about leading the NBA as the most dangerous 3-point shooter in the entire League. Only Peja Stojakovic of the Hornets and Victor Radmanovic of the Lakers are slightly ahead of J.R. Smith in threes buried per minute on the court.

Should this be enough to insure that J.R. Smith starts and never again is given a quick hook by George Karl? Of course it’s more than enough, but that doesn’t mean Karl is not liable to do it again when he cowers in fear as a team from Texas or Arizona looms in the playoffs. But regardless of to what extent Karl plays Smith the rest of this season, we can at least say that Smith has finally emerged from the triple disaster of the 2006-07 season: the neck tackle in New York City, the knee injury requiring surgery, and the refusal of Karl to play Smith much after his return from the surgery. Nene is gone again, but J.R. Smith is back, and if the Nuggets still refuse to use him much, he is going to get one hell of a contract when he gets traded to another team.

Everybody was tired in this game. The Cavaliers were, who checked into their hotel at 4 am of game day, tired from their tough win in Los Angeles against the Clippers the night before. J.R. Smith was tired of being a jerk in public, of being one dimensional on offense, and of being too often a turnover and defensive liability. Carmelo Anthony was tired of not pulling all his weight in rebounding and distributing to his open teammates. Allen Iverson was tired of being tired, which he has been way too often in games where he has been out on the court for about 45 of the total 48 minutes.

And shockingly, and you had better sit down for this announcement, even George Karl was tired. He was tired of being an overly conservative scrooge with his rotations; tired of being afraid to give reserves who have proven they deserve a chance a chance; tired of over relying on and of running Iverson’s tank dry; maybe even tired of looking at J.R. Smith as a demon from hell sent to torment him and the public at large. I never thought I would see the day, but Karl effectively used 9 players in one game. That was not a misprint. Karl used 9 players in one game straight up, with no garbage time needed to get to that many. I had to say it twice because I still don’t believe what I just saw.

Yes, the Cavs were tired, which was the perfect set-up for the Nuggets to defend their floor against the tough front court of the East Conference defending Champions. But J.R. Smith and George Karl being tired of being too reckless, and too conservative, respectively, were it to continue, could be the perfect set-up for the Nuggets to finally be able to win some games against the Texas and Arizona teams. Circle this date on your calendars, Nuggets fans, because if the Nuggets actually win something in the playoffs this year, it will be J.R. Smith and especially George Karl changing their ways on this date that will have made it possible.

Unfortunately, I need to admit right here and now that I am getting way too optimistic, because it is certainly very possible that this excellent use of the full Nugget’s roster was more or less an accident. And whether or not it was an accident, it’s likely that Karl will wake up in the morning and be an overly conservative scrooge again, and resolve to never play Bobby Jones and J.R. Smith in the same game ever again. And also resolve to never again have Jones and Smith playing more than Karl favorites Linas Kleiza and that old standby, Eduardo Najera. He may swear that he will never be this un-scrooge like ever again.

Moreover, J.R. Smith is not going to play as good as he did tonight all the time, and the Nuggets still don’t have many set plays on offense, and Melo is not going to get 9 rebounds every night, and no team ever plays without a night off in the playoffs. So even if Karl were no longer a scrooge, the Nuggets might still lose in the playoffs anyway. But to see my team run by someone other than a scrooge was a sight I thought I might never see. It was like George Karl had lost his mind and thrown away his standards. And the results of that speak for themselves.

Diawara played for 24 minutes and was 1/5 and ½ on 3’s for 3 points, and he had 2 assists and 2 rebounds. Najera played 18 minutes and was 1/1 for 2 points, and he had 2 rebounds and a block. Kleiza played 16 minutes and was 2/4, ½ on 3’s, and 1/1 from the line for 6 points, and he had 1 rebound and 1 assist.

Bobby Jones played 23 minutes and was 3/6, ½ on 3’s, and 1/1 from the line for 8 points, and he had 6 rebounds and 2 assists.

Kenyon Martin played 23 minutes and was 2/5 and 2/2 from the line for 6 points, and he had 5 rebounds and a steal.

J.R. Smith played 24 minutes and was 10/13, 7/8 on 3’s, and 2/6 from the line for 29 points, and he had 4 assists, 4 rebounds, and a steal.

Marcus Camby played 31 minutes and was 3/5 and 2/6 from the line for 8 points, and he had 12 rebounds, 1 block, 1 assist, and 1 steal.

Carmelo Anthony played 33 minutes and was 8/17, 0/2 on 3’s, and 6/7 from the line for 22 points, and he had 9 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals.

A.I. played 36 minutes and was 14/20, 2/4 on 3’s, and 7/8 from the line for 37 points, and he had 8 assists, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals.

The next game is Wednesday, November 14 in Denver to play the Trailblazers at 7 pm mountain time. The Trailblazers will be playing on back to back nights while the Nuggets will be rested.

Confidence

The Pacers game was a textbook case of how having or not having confidence can sometimes determine the outcome of a game. The Nuggets didn't have much confidence in the 1st half, and got some back in the 2nd half. The Pacers are not good enough to beat the Nuggets even if the Nuggets don't have good schemes, so it came down mainly to confidence in this game.

The Nuggets should have won at least one of the home games against the Spurs in April, but one reason they didn't was that their confidence had been drained by the statements of the coaches that the team did not have enough mental toughness, whatever that is, to compete with the Spurs. This year again, the Nugget's confidence is coming and going like the wind, sometimes in the same game.

This is confidence in action:

 

Game Preview: Nov. 12: Cavaliers at Nuggets

KEY
POS. NO. PLAYER
HEIGHT WEIGHT
PPG RPG APG FG%(Points, Rebounds, & Assists Per Game, Field Goal Shooting %)
RECENT HIGHLIGHTS

NUGGETS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward 15 Carmelo Anthony
6-8, 230
2007-08: 26.3 4.6 5.3 .442
Recorded his first double-double of the season with 32 points and 10 rebounds at Indiana on 11/10.


Power Forward #4 Kenyon Martin
6-9, 240
2007-08: 8.0 5.3 0.3 .431
Pulled down a season-high-tying seven rebounds while playing a season-high 27 minutes at Indiana on 11/10.


Center #23 Marcus Camby
6-11, 235
2007-08: 10.7 14.3 3.6 .500
With five blocks at Indiana on 11/10, Denver is now 3-0 this year when he has 5+ blocks (33-7 since 2005-06).


Shooting Guard #5 Yakhouba Diawara
6-7, 225
2007-08: 4.9 1.6 0.9 .565
Topped 10+ points for the second time this season with 11 points in 11 minutes at Indiana on 11/10.


Point Guard #3 Allen Iverson
6-0, 165
2007-08: 24.0 3.4 8.1 .419
Denver improved to an impressive 13-1 all-time when Iverson has a double-double with their win at Indiana.



CAVALIERS PROBABLE STARTERS


Small Forward #23 LeBron James
6-8 250
2007-08: 26.6 7.7 7.6 .446
LeBron James has 10 blocked shots in his last four games. His 10 blocks mark the highest four-game total of his career.


Power Forward #90 Drew Gooden
6-10 250
2007-08: 14.9 10.4 1.3 .453
Had 17 rebounds against the Clippers on Sunday, Nov. 11.


Center #11 Zydrunas Ilgauskas
7-3 260
2007-08: 17.6 13.1 0.6 .515
Zydrunas Ilgauskas posted his fifth double-double of the season with 11 points and 15 rebounds at Sacramento on Friday night. Ilgauskas has grabbed at least 12 rebounds in all six games this season and ranks fourth in the NBA in rebounds per game (14.3 per game). He leads the NBA in offensive rebounds per game (6.0)


Shooting Guard #3 Sasha Pavlovic
6-7 239
2007-08: 5.4 2.0 1.2 .250
Scored 17 points in 35 minutes against Utah on Nov. 7.



Point Guard #1 Daniel Gibson
6-2 194
2007-08: 13.7 2.8 3.0 .549
Cavaliers guard Daniel Gibson has connected on 18-32 (.563) from three-point range this season. He has hit at least three three-pointers in each of his last three games
and on the season ranks tied for third in the NBA in three-pointers made.

TEAM STATS COMPARED
Points Per Game:
Denver....106.1
Cleveland..97.3

Field Goal Accuracy
Denver.....457
Cleveland..438

Rebounds Per Game:
Denver.....44.4
Cleveland..46.1

Assists Per Game:
Denver.....24.0
Cleveland..18.7

NUGGETS INJURY REPORT

OUT: Anthony Carter suffered a 3rd metacarpal fracture on his right hand and underwent successful surgery on 10/10. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks
OUT: Chucky Atkins suffered a severe right groin strain at Phoenix on 10/25 and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.
OUT: Nene suffered a torn ulner collateral ligament in his left thumb at Boston on 11/7 and will undergo surgery on 11/9.
QUESTIONABLE: Mike Wilks suffered a right hamstring strain vs. New Orleans on 11/4
and has missed each of the last four games. He is considered questionable for tonight’s game.

CAVALIERS INJURY REPORT:

OUT: Donyell Marshall PF Wrist I-L. Out until at least mid-November
OUT: Eric Snow PG Knee
PROBABLE: Larry Hughes SG Knee

ON THE AIR:
Tonight’s game will be televised on Altitude with Chris Marlowe calling the action and Scott Hastings providing analysis. The game will also be broadcast on KKFN AM 950, with Jerry Schemmel doing the play-by-play and Jason Kosmicki hosting the studio courtside.

KEY MATCHUPS:

SF Carmelo Anthony vs LeBron James Both have had 1 bad game so far this year, and both have missed a few more shots than usual. Right now, James has a slight lead on Anthony in points scored per game, 26.6 vs. 26.3. James is rebounding more this year than last at 7.7 rpg, and also assiting more, at 7.6 apg. Anthony is down from last year in rebounding at 4.6 rpg and up in assists, to 5.3 apg. But Melo has Iverson and Camby to rack up assists and rebounds, respectively. Melo has the richer team, but LeBron has the finals appearance. But Melo’s team took one game from the Spurs and LeBron’s team was swept.

C Marcus Camby vs Zydrunas Ilgauskas In the front court, both PF Drew Gooden and C Zydrunas Ilgauskas are off to solid starts whereas, for the Nuggets, Kenyon Martin is limited and not totally consistent yet and Anthony is on again, off again in rebounding. But Nuggets C Marcus Camby is having a career year and one on one will give Ilgauskas, who led the Cavs with 25 points Sunday in L.A., all he can handle. On the other hand, however, the Ilgauskas/Gooden combination is a stronger combo in the front court than anything the Nuggets have right now.

NUGGET'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Stay cool and confident. I’m going to have to keep including this key until the Nuggets maintain their confidence more consistently.

Plug in the big guy Steven Hunter for 12 minutes or so if the Nuggets are getting destroyed up front as in the Knicks game. Hunter had 5 rebounds a game in 23 minutes a game last year. What is there to lose if you’re already being destroyed?

Don’t be like the Clippers: guard Lebron James at all times. Unfortunately, the Nuggets don’t have the luxury of double teaming James much due to all the injuries and the Ilgauskas-Gooden problem.

CAVALIER'S KEYS TO VICTORY

Double team Melo. There is a reason most teams do this.

Pound the ball inside all night. The Knicks were very successful with it, and that was before Nene was injured, so the potential for destroying the Nuggets here is greater than ever.

Guard the 3-point tries. The Nuggets have been working hard to bring their 3-point shooting up to speed so that they can compete with the dreaded Spurs, and the work is paying off. The Nuggets were 16th in made threes last year, but are 8th so far this year.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS
Both teams come in with 4-3 records. The Cavaliers are playing on back to back nights of a long 6 game Western road trip. They are 3-2 on the trip, having defeated the Warriors, Clippers, and Kings, and having lost to the Suns and the Jazz in a close one. .

In the back court, the Cav’s Eric Snow is day to day at guard, but the more important Larry Hughes was back from a bruised knee on Sunday in Los Angeles and scored 12 on 5/8. The Nuggets are badly banged up at guard. Among the Nugget’s guards, stop-gap Wilks remains questionable, Chucky Atkins is out until sometime in December, and Anthony Carter is expected back sometime in the next 10 days, but apparently not for this game. Some Nuggets fans get nervous with Iverson playing point, thinking he’s going to hog it, but A.I is #6 in assists in the NBA right now and that “all Iverson all the time” thing was just a bad playoff strategy

The Cavaliers are one of the best rebounding teams in the League right now. In the front court, although the Cavaliers are without PF Donyell Marshall, the Nuggets are without PF Nene, who is more important to the Nuggets than Marshall is to the Cavaliers. And Martin is still getting up to speed. So as in the back court, you have a substantial advantage to the Cavaliers as a result of all of these injuries.

The point of going through all these injuries is to show that the Nuggets are weaker in both the front court and the back court from injuries than it is safe to be when playing a team like the Cavaliers. So the Cavaliers could easily win this game despite the home court and rest advantages for the Nuggets. If Melo doesn’t get at least 9 rebounds and 27 points, the Cavaliers will probably win this game. If he doesn't get at least 7 rebounds and 22 points, they will most likely win. And, as usual, the Nuggets will lose if the reserves don’t show up and most likely win if the reserves score at least 30 points and get at least 15 rebounds. I’m thinking the reserves get close to the 30 points in this one, but not to the 15 rebounds. So flip a coin to guess who will win, and look out for a very close finish in this game.

DON'T TICK ME OFF MORE THAN USUAL GK
If the Nuggets get pounded at the hoop as expected, don't save Steven Hunter for garbage time. Use Adrian Dantley in garbage time. That's a joke if you didn't know.

Video: Nuggets 113 Pacers 106

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Nuggets Mount a Furious Comeback to Win Over the Pacers in Indiana 113-106

The Nuggets won their first game against a team that has won at least 1 game this season, by turning an 18 point half time deficit into a 7-point margin at the end, 113-106. The three previous wins by the Nuggets were all against teams that still had not won a single game as of last night; they were a combined 0-16. But the Pacers were 3-2 going into this game. The Nuggets played worse than bad in the first half and better than good in the second half. Both teams were playing on back to back nights, and so the Nuggets had to fight fatigue as they mounted their huge comeback in the second half.

This game was the best of times, and it was the worst of times for the Nuggets, who are the Charles Dickens team of the NBA: two parts drama for every part execution, and a lot of sound and fury, generally signifying nothing. The sound and fury of George Karl was heard at halftime, complaining about the 13 turnovers, bad shooting, and worse defending of the 1st half. At least we now know he has a little fight left in him; you would seriously doubt he has any left judging from his sideline demeanor.

Fans following the game back in Denver were sure at halftime that this was curtains for this team for this season, and they were also thinking that the coaches were definitely going to be switched by the end of the season, if not over the all-star break. But a coach with a long legacy and a big contract such as George Karl has at least as many lives as a cat, and it is almost always too early to pronounce such a coach on his way out. He can mess things up until the cows come home and you will still be able to locate him sitting on the Nugget’s sideline with wreckage all around. It’s nice to hope for new coaches, but don’t start predicting them because you are going to be knocking your head against the wall before long.

It was 74-56 Pacers at the half, 88-82 Pacers after 3 quarters, and the Pacers were still leading 101-97 with 3:28 left in the game. But Iverson fed Melo on two successive plays for jump shot scores, with PF Jermaine O’Neil called for an offensive foul in between, for a 101 each tie with 3 minutes left. The key plays in the final three minutes that won it for the Nuggets were 3 Camby blocks on PG Jamal Tinsley, SG Danny Grainger fouling Melo. with a minute left with Melo. making both free throws for 106-101 Nuggets, and then, following Martin stealing off of Tinsley, Iverson turning the lights out with a 3-pointer with 26 seconds left for 109-101 Nuggets. A.I. is one of the best in the business of turning the lights out.

Melo recently had a short but deep slump coinciding with the three game losing streak; during these 3 games he was only 18/67 (percentage = .269) for 55 points. Every year, Melo has to reacquaint himself with all the double teams he draws, adjusting his tactics to reflect how specific teammates are playing. I’m thinking that this was the main reason for this slump. In this game, Melo completed his second winner of a game out of the slump, He was 7/18 on jumpers, 3/5 on layups, and 10/23 overall for 32 points. The Pacers were unable to guard either Melo or Iverson without fouling; both were an identical 10/12 from the free throw line.

A good rule of thumb is that if you can keep Melo and Iverson’s combined foul shots under 16, you have a good chance of beating the Nuggets. Your odds go down as the number of free throws they get rises above 16. Both Melo and A.I. are over 80% from the line. In other words, don’t foul Melo and Iverson more than a total of about 8 times if you want to beat the Nuggets. Aside from fouling Melo and A.I. 11 times, the Pacers committed 17 other fouls, for a total of 28, too far above the NBA normal of about 22. The Nuggets committed just 18 fouls in total, with Martin and Najera responsible for half of them. Quite honestly, the rest of the Nuggets, except for Diawara and J.R. Smith when he’s riled up, generally don’t defend close enough to be eligible to commit fouls.

With Nene gone until mid or late December, Kenyon Martin’s minutes are rising earlier than according to plan. In this one, although K-Mart was only 1/6 for 2 points, he pulled down 7 rebounds and made 4 steals. Melo answered my call to fight for rebounds because it is crazy to think Camby alone can get most of them; he had 10 rebounds and 5 assists to go along with his 32 points. Camby had 10 rebounds, Iverson 5, and the Denver bench had 15 rebounds.

Here is an important rule of thumb as you ride the Nugget’s rollercoaster from someone who has thrown up his dinner a few times while riding it in seasons past. It is a fantasy to think that A.I., Melo, Camby, and K-mart can win games almost by themselves. If the reserves, with their small minutes from Karl, are able to get at least 14 rebounds and at least 33 points between them, the Nuggets will win most of the time. If the reserve’s scoring is under 22 points, or if their rebounding is under 10 rebounds, as is the case all too often, the Nuggets will almost always lose. In this game, the Denver reserves had 31 points to go along with those 15 rebounds.

For the Nuggets, a 20 point lead or a 20 point deficit is like a 12-14 point lead or deficit for most other teams. The Nuggets can easily give up 8-10 points in 2 or 3 minutes of turnovers and lack of defense. Conversely, the Nuggets can easily get 8-10 points in 2-3 minutes when one of the streaky 3-point shooters hits 2 or 3 3-pointers in a row. Here is your guideline to deal with the Nugget’s rollercoaster in the future. If the Nuggets ever lead by 30 or more anytime in the first 3 quarters, even they will have a very difficult time blowing the game, so a 30 point lead means the Nuggets are going to win in almost all cases. If the Nuggets are ever losing by 27 or more in a game, it is going to be a loss in almost all cases. In this game, the maximum Pacer lead was 25, so they fell just short of sealing the deal. Be ready for anything in the 4th quarter in a game if the margins never exceed those.

In fact, don’t predict anything with respect to the Nuggets who seem, as I indicated in the last report, to size up their opposition to determine whether they should start running and showboating against them, or if they should bow down in submission, and combine enough turnovers and blown covers to make it easy for that team to win. Losing to the good teams is a big fat self-fulfilling prophecy if there ever was one, but such is the limited psychology of our team.

Fans in Denver are confused and conflicted about this team that is not consistent from one half to the next, let alone one game to the next. I think the main reason for the confusion is that the Nuggets think about their opponents too much, and if they conclude or know in advance that their opponent is a good one with good offensive and defensive schemes, an inferiority complex kicks in for the scheme-less Nuggets, and it becomes a long shot that they will win. George Karl without any doubt has an inferiority complex. He disputed that the Nuggets could possibly win 60 out of 82 games when Carmelo Anthony tried to set that goal, saying that 55 was more reasonable, and that even that should not be considered a hard target. A deduction from that is that Karl still believes that it will not be possible for the Nuggets to beat the Spurs, the Mavs, the Suns, or the Jazz in the postseason this year.

But the main thing to realize here is that the psychology underlying most teams is similar to the psychology of their coaches. For example, Spurs Coach Greg Popovich has a certain way of thinking and acting, and the Spurs conduct their business on the court to a substantial extent in accordance with these ways of Popovich. The Nuggets are reflecting the here today and gone tomorrow, weaker confidence of George Karl. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the Nuggets are never going to win a playoff series until they really believe they can win. If the coach doesn’t really believe it’s possible to win, then it almost certainly will not happen.

So I am hoping that the Nuggets soon stop sizing up their opponents and changing their playing intensity and style based on the supposed quality rather than the game of their opponent. I am also hoping that they come to believe they can compete with the Texas teams, Phoenix, and Utah, regardless of what Karl thinks or says on that subject. There is a psychology behind every player, every game, and every season, and the Nuggets are shooting themselves in the foot by not understanding how you win, or at least avoid defeat, in that mental aspect of sports. Here’s a formula to remember:

Desire to Win + Skills to Win + Strategies & Tactics to Win +Hard Work & Correct Execution to Win + Confidence to Win = Power to Win

The Nuggets have the first two components of that formula down, but they are having a heck of a time with all of the other three. Melo remarked regarding the Pacer win: “If this is not a confidence-booster, I don’t know what is.” Melo has admitted indirectly that the Nuggets don’t have enough confidence! Melo, the best way to have confidence when you need it is to not be losing it by stupid ways of thinking and stupid subjects of thinking. Forget about the damn other teams and how good they are or not are and just concentrate on yourselves and what you are doing on the court.

The story will read that the 2007-08 Denver Nuggets were confusing to just about everyone. They were the best of teams. They were the worst of teams.

Najera played 25 minutes and was 2/3 and 1/1 on 3’s for 5 points, and he had 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and an assist. Yakhouba Diawara played 11 minutes and was 4/5 and ¾ on 3’s for 11 points, and he had 1 rebound.

Bobby Jones played 9 minutes and was 0/1 on 3’s and 2/2 from the line for 2 points, and he had 1 rebound.

Linas Kleiza played 31 minutes and was 7/12, 2/7 on 3’s, and 5/5 from the line for 21 points, and he had 7 rebounds.

Kenyon Martin played 27 minutes and was 1/6 for 2 points, and he had 7 rebounds and 4 steals.

J.R. Smith played 19 minutes and was 1/5 and ¼ on 3’s for 3 points, and he had 4 assists and 1 rebound.

Marcus Camby played 39 minutes and was 4/10 and 2/3 from the line for 10 points, and he had 10 rebounds, 5 blocks, 4 steals, and 3 assists.

A.I. played 43 minutes and was 7/17, 3/8 on 3’s, and 10/12 from the line for 27 points, and he had 10 assists, 5 rebounds, and 3 steals

Melo played 37 minutes and was 10/23, 2/6 on 3’s, and 10/12 from the line for 32 points, and he had 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal.

The next game will be Monday, November 12 in Denver to play the Cavaliers at 7 pm mountain time. The Cavaliers will be playing on back to back nights, whereas the Nuggets will be rested.