The Common People Have Lost Faith in King George Karl Again

The Quotes below are taken from this Denver Post article.

So just how much are the Nuggets missing Kenyon Martin and Anthony Carter, anyway? In Carter’s case, if I were to make that decision on the emails I receive, that answer would be: They’re not missing him at all.

But we know better than that.

Don’t we?

You won't know better than that if you ask Mr. George Karl about this, laugh out loud. But why do I suspect that is exactly what is going to happen next...

“People forget we have two of our best defenders sitting on the bench,” Nuggets coach George Karl said. “We didn’t defend and we didn’t pass. Having another point guard on the court would help that. And I think Kenyon and AC are, by far, people know, our best defenders.”

Damn, I knew it, George Karl was going to be asked! How did I know? laugh out loud.

Umm, do people really know that Kenyon Martin and Anthony Carter are the best defenders on the Nuggets?

DENVER NUGGETS
DEFENDING SUB RATING
All tracked and hidden defending
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
As of February 20 2009

Nene Hilario 0.493
Chris Andersen 0.431
Kenyon Martin 0.415
J.R. Smith 0.409
Renaldo Balkman 0.379
Carmelo Anthony 0.362
Anthony Carter 0.329
Chauncey Billups† 0.293
Linas Kleiza 0.201
Dahntay Jones 0.195

Well, Kenyon Martin is near to but not at the top of the list, so there you go again, Mr. Karl, being biased toward the more veteran player (in this case, Martin) over the younger, inexperienced player (Nene). Kenyon Martin is one of your best defenders, but he is not the best.

I don't usually publish the hidden defending component that is part of the overall defending I just reported above, but I certainly stand by the accuracy of it, as long as the statistics at NBA.com / Lenovo are correct...

DENVER NUGGETS
HIDDEN DEFENDING
Based on Points Allowed Per Minute, this is a very close estimate of untracked defending
2008-09 REGULAR SEASN
Through February 20 2009

Nene Hilario 0.174
J.R. Smith 0.157
Kenyon Martin 0.121
Renaldo Balkman 0.117
Anthony Carter 0.108
Carmelo Anthony 0.104
Chauncey Billups† 0.096
Chris Andersen 0.071
Dahntay Jones 0.069
Linas Kleiza 0.036

This is as close as anyone will ever get to rating man to man defending and defensive recognition, reaction, and rotation. (The three defensive r's.). But there are no style points here. Mr. Karl is, like many others, forgetting that "the best style" does not necessarily translate into the best results. You may agree with Mr. Karl that Kenyon Martin has the best defensive style on the Nuggets, but I don't care who has the best defensive style; all I care about is who has the best defensive results, and I just reported to you who does have the best defensive results.

J.R. Smith's defending style may often appear to be kind of awkward, kind of reckless, kind of inconsistent, sometimes kind of pathetic. His style doesn't seem to generate a lot of confidence among many people who watch basketball games. But does it really matter "how much confidence his style generates"? No, it doesn't matter, and the results speak for themselves. As you can see looking at the two listings above, the Nuggets are as good defensively this year when J.R. Smith is out there as when Kenyon Martin is out there.

As for Anthony Carter, he is not one of your best defenders at all. While he is above average in the hidden defending actions (the ones that generate the most style points) he is overall not a great defender, and is not as good this year as is Nene, Chris Andersen, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, Renaldo Balkman, and even Carmelo Anthony. And isn't this the same Anthony Carter who you wouldn't start in the Lakers playoff series because, gasp, he isn't a great defender? Or did you forget?

I’m not saying the duo would cure all of the Nuggets’ ills, because, as we all know, that team was losing games with both players in the lineup. But let’s take the Sacramento debacle on Sunday night. Kenyon Martin is the Nuggets’ best defender. That’s a fact.

Wrong, Mr. Karl! That is not a fact. Kenyon Martin is not the best defender on the Nuggets, Nene is. If there was a vote on who has the best defensive style, I'm sure that Kenyon Martin would trounce Nene. But any vote on style would not change the fact that Nene is the best defender on the Nuggets, nor the fact that Marcus Camby was the best defender on the Nuggets in 2007-08:

DENVER NUGGETS
DEFENDING SUB RATING
All tracked and hidden defending
2007-08 REGULAR SEASON

Marcus Camby 0.583
Nene Hilario 0.508
Eduardo Najera 0.461
Yakhouba Diawara 0.374
Kenyon Martin 0.348
Allen Iverson 0.300
Linas Kleiza 0.274
J.R. Smith 0.263
Carmelo Anthony 0.259
Anthony Carter 0.203
Chucky Atkins 0.168

Last year Kenyon Martin was not the best defender on the Nuggets either, Mr. Karl, I hate to break it to you and your fooled fans. Kenyon Martin is a good or very good defender (your choice) but not a great defender, sorry to break it to you.

Martin, with fast hands and fast feet, giving him the ability to guard out on the perimeter, could have been placed on Spencer Hawes, rather than the reluctant-to-leave-the-paint Nene, who was late out to the Kings center time and again, allowing Hawes to have target practice from the 3-point line.

Mr. Karl, why is it that you and some of your fooled fans insist on blaming every perimeter problem you have on whoever is playing center? Why can't anyone else bear any blame when your perimeter defense goes to hell? Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups deserve some of the blame if blame is going to be thrown around in public.

More broadly, why do you not play zone defense more than you do? Is it because you don't like the styles that emerge when zone defense is used?

Those shots went in. Contested? Maybe they don’t. And if that’s the case, the Kings don’t get off to the same hot start and the Nuggets don’t get buried early, allowing them a chance to get on track offensively and win the game.

The thing you don't understand about three-point shooting, Mr. Karl is that you can not lock down defend against the three no matter what you do and no matter who you have doing it. That is the whole point of why good franchises like the Spurs always without fail have a "crew" of good three point shooters. In the playoffs especially, the Spurs roll out their three point game in order to overcome any defense that is overweighted on the inside and is attempting to shut down the paint. Even if you do partly shut down the paint, a good three-point team can still beat you, Mr. Karl. Just as a good 2-point jump shooter needs to be able to and can make some mid-range jumpers even if they are constested, a good 3-point shooter can make threes whether they are contested or not. (Whereas, by the way, not good 3-point shooters can not make many threes whether they are contested or not.)

If you had what you are dreaming of in the Sacramento game, Mr. Karl, maybe the Kings are 12/29 instead of 14/29 on threes. 12/29 would be about normal for a good three-point team on a good night. You still lose the game, Mr. Karl, because you lost by 8, and since your team, by your own admission, was bad offensively. At least you are honest and not wrong about that.

Offensively, the Nuggets have returned to individual basketball. In their loss at Utah, the Nuggets had just three assists on their first 12 made field goals. At Sacramento they had five assists in the first half. Carter, who has no need to look for his own shot, would help that. He knows his assists are down and turnovers are up over the last month, but says that’s due to a bad hip, which has caused him to miss the last two games. I’ll take him at his word on that. He could return tonight.

In the Sac-Town game, you, Mr. Karl, were afraid to play the very young but extremely tall Johan Petro, which left you too small inside. You are playing Sacremento, Mr. Karl, one of the worst teams in the League! Why were you afraid to play Johan Petro? It was for games like this that Johan Petro was made available to you.

Also, either Chris Andersen, Renaldo Balkman, or both had to get more playing time if you were going to win the game.

It's your fault, Mr. Karl, that J.R. Smith is more inconsistent than ever, so that it is hopeless that he will help you in too many games. It is you who told him that he isn't good enough to start, and that there is something wrong with how he thinks, and with his personality. So it's your fault that Smith believed some or all of what you said and that his natural reaction has been to press too much. And everyone knows that all basketball players become more inconsistent than they were before when they press too much.

On the one hand, J.R. Smith is rebounding to beat the band for a 2-guard, and is defending and fouling with the best of this year's Nuggets. But on the other hand, his 3-point shooting has arguably never been less reliable than it is right now. So what have you gained with all your tinkering with J.R. Smith, Mr. Karl? Have you really made any net gains? I don't believe so.

But more than anything, Martin and Carter bring toughness – particularly mentally – and the Nuggets have lacked that in large amounts lately.

Oh, here we go again. Yes, we know Mr. Karl. Anthony Carter, Kenyon Martin, and so on and so forth have better personalities than J.R. Smith, mostly or totally because J.R. Smith is less mature, which is not his fault, and has little to do with basketball. And Nene is, well, he's a... a foreigner! His native language is Portuguese! He talks funny, so how can he have a good personality and be mentally tough? How could he have a personality which meets the full approval of Mr. Karl? He couldn't, on account of the language thing and his other funny, foreign mannerisms.

Laugh out loud, Mr. Karl!

You know, it's not just me and so many of the "common people" who don't like you anymore. It's also that the referees don't like the defending that you put out on the court much anymore, and this is one of your biggest problems right now. The refs have more and more concluded that your defending is too heavy on aggressiveness and fouling and too light on skills, and they are starting to throw the rule book at you. Your team is being buried in personal fouls, Mr. Karl!

And oh, it's getting kind of pathetic again in Nuggets Land. On the one hand there are all these people on Nuggets blogs and forums starting to post things like "Karl is the problem," and "Karl must go," and "Karl will definitely go if the Nuggets don't win a playoff series this year" and so on and so forth. Meanwhile, other, more "credentialed" people, such as reporters, are still trying to find out why the Nuggets are losing now from who? You guessed it, George Karl. It seems that when it comes to the Nuggets, it doesn't matter how many common people think he is a lousy coach. The royalty is faithful to him and looks for answers from him no matter what.

I hate to break it to those of you who realize that Mr. Karl needs to go, but George Karl, unless he voluntarily retires, which is extremely unlikely, because the Nuggets will have won too many regular season games for that, and because there is one final year left on his contract, will almost certainly be back again next year, no matter how badly the Nuggets tank the rest of this season, and no matter how bad they are in the playoffs.

If the Nuggets franchise really and truly cared about winning in the playoffs, George Karl would not be around right now.

Can you see it coming in the distance yet, Mr. Karl? That train coming down the tracks, which comes every year? You and your lame philosophies are going to lose in the playoffs again.

But oh, that's right, you don't really care much about the playoffs, and you have a lock on making your regular season quota this year already, which was 45 wins at a minimum, so you are all set and all comfy for the year regardless of how many people want you to be fired this year, and regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

======================================================
Here are the actual comments that have been posted under the Post article at the Denver Post site as of this writing. Despite the premise of the reporter, that George Karl will know the real reasons the Nuggets are losing, every one of the comments 5 out of 5, blame Mr. Karl himself, first and foremost!

5 Comments »
I think George Karl is the problem.

Comment by nicole — March 9, 2009 @ 12:42 pm

Missing Kenyon is HUGE to our team–not so much AC.
I am really amazed that we did not attempt to pick up a big post man for the second half of the season–instead we picked up a point guard.
We really don’t need a point guard, we need some big presence inside. Bird is good and Nene has great hands, but he is getting beat up and we don’t have an enforcer in the line-up without Kenyon.

Comment by T — March 9, 2009 @ 1:57 pm

Carter has mental toughness?? One of the teams best defenders? Only in Coach Karl’s eyes. His turnovers are ridiculous, and whomever he guards lately scores AT WILL. If he has a bad hip at this age, its only going to get worse. Plus, he should NEVER be on the court the same time as Chauncey.

Comment by JD — March 9, 2009 @ 2:47 pm

Toughness? I haven’t seen it since the Laker game. Karl needs to go..it’s obvious he has given up…you don;t think players pick up on that..as he sits there sucking on throat lozenges..and buries his head in his hands after another forced shot by JR..the man has given up. It;s time to make some personnel moves Rex…someone the players can relate to. Even 70 year old Jerry Sloan still gets out of his seat yelling at the refs, getting his players fired up. It’s called passion George!

Comment by JimRam — March 10, 2009 @ 9:02 am

JimRam and Nicole—I certainly agree with you! I had hoped to have a new coach this year, but acquiring Chauncey got everyone’s attention off of the coach. Just suffering thru his substitutions from the bench is painful. And, the energy of the team has been horrendous–two guys crashing the boards for a rebound and the others watching. If this team has the talent to move into first place, then they have the talent to remain in first place. Something or someone is sapping the energy and enthusiasm from this team and it is most likely the coach!

Comment by T — March 10, 2009 @ 10:42 am

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The Denver Nuggets Have Been Very Clever, but the Referees are on to Them Now

This year the Nuggets were very clever when they changed their stripes and became a defense first rather than an offense first team. They may or may not know just how clever they are. They got rid of their two best players from last year: Marcus Camby and Allen Iverson and, due to panic surrounding the economic meltdown, they felt they could afford only one really good player in exchange: Chauncey Billups.

Now Billups is an even better offensive than he is a defensive player, yet nevertheless the Nuggets were smart enough to become a defense first and pride in defense type of team. This was was fundamentally clever because with Iverson gone, with Billups responsible for running the offense and unable to be a power scorer at the same time he is running it, with Carmelo Anthony downsized in terms of scoring under instructions from George Karl, with Linas Kleiza unable to reestablish the modest offense he had the last couple of years, and with J.R. Smith even more inconsistent than in the last couple of years, the Nuggets simply no longer have the players necessary to be a good or high quality offensive team anymore.

Furthermore, if you are bargain shopping for NBA players, you can get some nice bargains when it comes to "defensive specialists" who are, unfortunately, players who will not do you any good to speak of offensively in the playoffs.

So the Nuggets, correctly realizing that defense was the only good way to go, went out and picked up some incredible defensive specialist bargains, notably Chris Andersen and Renaldo Balkman.

That was clever. But why exactly was this extra clever? Because the 2008-09 Nuggets appeal to a different group of fans than the 2007-08 Nuggets did. Last year's Nuggets were appealing to those who believe that if you don't have the superstars you won't get anywhere in the playoffs. This year's Nuggets are appealing to those who believe that if you don't have the defensive effort, pride, and purpose, you won't get anywhere in the playoffs.

Last year's fans were not going to be this year's fans regardless of how the Nuggets might change their stripes, after watching the Nuggets be embarrassed and totally destroyed by the Lakers in the first round last April, despite having more than their fair share of superstars and stars. Many if not most of last year's fans are now fans of other teams, or not following basketball closely at all.

The hardcore Nuggets fans, the ones who want to remain fans come what may, used what to me are strange rationalizations in order to remain fans. These never say die types have claimed that Marcus Camby's defensive style is so bad that he is not really a good defender, so it was a smart franchise move to give Camby away and to start clearing up payroll space. Many of these folks were also gung ho on Iverson being traded away, largely based on the claim that Iverson would never reduce his shooting and thus make the offense less easy to defend even if he were asked which, however, has been proven false because that is exactly what Iverson has done for the Detroit Pistons after being traded to them by the Nuggets for Chauncey Billups.

Getting back to extremely clever: the Nuggets, by changing from offense first to defense first, have attracted a largely new fan base. They have successfully replaced last year's fans of superstars with this year's fans of defense. Especially if you are a middle sized market with relatively weak interest in basketball, you need to appeal to at least one major subgroup of basketball fans, or you run the risk of your franchise going into a "recession" of its own. The owner and managers of the Nuggets very wisely decided that they would try to avoid a franchise recession, while at the same time dealing aggressively with the recession in the economy as a whole, by dumping some pricey players overboard.

So it seems that the clever but never quite ready for prime time Nuggets are very good at playing fans as if they were violins. And in about the first two thirds of the 2008-09 regular season, the Nuggets have been very good at playing referees as if they were violins. Their swarming, aggressive defensive style, a bare bones, inexperienced version of defending that can be successful in the playoffs if a good offense goes along with it, has been up until now as much admired by the referees as by the fans of defense in basketball. The referees have been easy on the Nuggets as far as calling fouls is concerned in the first two thirds of the season.

But the Nuggets' way of defending, long on energy but a little short on skills, recently appears to be wearing thin among those who wear the striped shirts and call fouls during games.

Most contending teams are low fouls per game teams. There are a very small number of exceptions: the Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz are essentially the only exceptions. The Spurs, the Rockets, and the Mavericks commit the fewest fouls per game in the NBA, and the Hawks, the Cavaliers, the Magic, the Hornets, the Lakers, and the Trailblazers are all below normal in fouls per game. In other words, most contending teams rely more on defensive skill and less on defensive aggressiveness per se in order to win,

Conversely, many of the lottery teams are high fouls per game teams. This would be due to some combination of lesser abilities to defend well without fouling, and perhaps to not trying quite so hard to defend without fouling due to not being a contending team. It takes a lot of hard, tough work to defend well without fouling. Very hard and very tough.

It's one thing for the packed with stars and superstars and defensively highly skilled Boston Celtics to be one of the highest fouls per game NBA teams. But it is another thing entirely for a team with a smaller number of stars and superstars, and for a team which has fewer real defensive skills, and for a team that hasn't won anything in the playoffs in recent history, namely, the Denver Nuggets, to think that they can continue indefinitely to have the referees "on their side." The Celtics are intentionally using both skilled defending and aggressive defending resulting in a fairly large number of fouls. The Nuggets are using the aggressive defending, but they don't have anywhere near the skills for defending that the Celtics do. As a result, although the Nuggets undoubtably impressed the referees for much of this regular season, the referees are becoming less and less impressed as the season goes along, as they realize that the Nuggets' defending is 7 or 8 parts aggression and only 2 or 3 parts skills, whereas the Celtics' defending is 4 or 5 parts aggression and 5 or 6 parts skills.

When the referees become less impressed with defensive energy, look out. They will gradually start calling more and more fouls against your aggressive defenders, as well as more and more goal tends. This is what is starting to happen with the Nuggets. In Friday's loss to the Jazz, which in all fairness was an extremely difficult to win back to back road game, the Nuggets, who average 22.9 fouls per game, were called for 32 personal fouls! The Jazz, who average 22.2 fouls per game, were called for 26 in that game. In the 100-95 loss to the Pistons in Detroit on March 3, the Nuggets were whistled for 27 fouls, the Pistons for 21. In the 120-117 loss to Milwaukee on February 22, the Nuggets were whistled for 31 fouls, although the Bucks were called for 32. In the 116-99 loss to the Chicago Bulls on February 20, the Nuggets were called for 26 fouls, whereas the Bulls were called for 20.

There have been few games lately where the Nuggets were called for fewer than their average of 22.9 fouls, although the 106-90 win over Portland on March 5 was a game where the Nuggets were called for just 18 fouls.

The Portland game illustrates the main point just as the high foul games do. The main point is that when the referees "let them play" and don't call some of the fouls, the Nuggets can still be successful with their way of defending. When the referees decide to call a game more closely, more in strict adherence to the detailed rules, then the Nuggets are in deep trouble.

A defensively aggressive team wins if and only if the referees allow a substantial number of fouls to go uncalled. Uncalled fouls are almost like free money: the team that benefits has prevented a possession from being a score on the cheap.

The big problem for the Nuggets is that there is a tendency for the referees to gradually call tighter and tighter games as the regular season goes along, which has the effect of more and more penalizing teams that are long on defensive aggressiveness and short on defensive skills. Not to mention that in the playoffs, the refs generally are even more likely to call relatively "strictly according to the rules" games. As the referees become more and more strict and less and less impressed with the Nuggets' way of defending, the Nuggets are finding and will continue to find it harder and harder to win games.

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The Rocky Mountain News Lives on Here (Sort of)

The Rocky Mountain News, one of the two major Denver area newspapers, has been closed by corporate forces profit driven as always and currently panicked about the depression to boot. This is just a little tiny drop in a sea of economic disasters ongoing as we speak. Until an economy is established where people are more important than money and big corporations, this kind of thing is going to continue.

In the video left behind in the wake of the closing of this source of information about the Nuggets and of course many more things, it mentions that bloggers have mostly opinions and not facts to contribute. Knowing this to be generally true, and not liking the idea of being limited like that one bit, I decided to do everything possible to make my reports tilted heavily in the direction of facts. Thus, I have the heavy statistical focus, including my own custom made statistics. In other words, I use the NBA scorekeepers as my reporters to the maximum extent possible.

However, traditional reporters are still needed; you can't do every last thing in terms of discovering and revealing the truth with statistics! Here are two examples of things I would like to know right now, but can't find out unless a reporter is able to report on them, or unless I sneak around Denver for a couple of days, beg for information, and get lucky (with no pay, laugh out loud):

1. What exactly are the incentives in J.R. Smith's contract?
2. Is Linas Kleiza likely to get a new contract and return next year or not?

Traditional off-line organizations including basketball teams traditionally divulge certain information only to traditional reporters. If they don't start divulging the information to some non-traditional reporters who operate online, and the number of traditional reporters shrinks, they will be able to maintain a lot more secrets. That's not to say that traditional reporters such as those who are now no longer working for the Rocky Mountain News always were aggressive at getting facts that organizations might want to be kept secret. All too often, they were not as aggressive as they could be. Also, there are some things the organizations are going to keep secret come hell or high water, regardless of how aggressive reporters might be.

All bloggers should go for more facts and fewer opinions but, in any event, a shortage in reporters who come up with facts that some are trying to hide is here and is apparently going to get worse. Some secrets will be relatively easy to keep regardless of how many "internet news sources" there are, because bloggers are not authorized (or "credentialed" as they say) to dig out the most closely kept secrets, whereas traditional reporters are.

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Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets Possible Playoff and March 9 Game Preview

Using very important efficiency ratings, Real Player Ratings, and Real Player Production for the Rockets and the Nuggets, we can prepare ourselves for a possible playoff series between the two teams in round one of the NBA Championship next month. Also, this is a great preview for tonight’s Rockets-Nuggets game.

OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
Rockets 15th in offensive efficiency in the NBA, 108.4 points per 100 possessions.
Nuggets 11th in offensive efficiency in the NBA, 109.0 points per 100 possessions.

Rockets 5th in defensive efficiency in the NBA, 104.1 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Nuggets 11th defensive efficiency in the NBA, 106.5 points allowed per 100 possessions.

For the player ratings, first we will look at the ratings separately by team and then we will combine both teams to see how the players stack up even more clearly.

QUICK USER GUIDE NOTES THAT APPLY TO THIS COMPARISON OF TEAMS:
1. Players who have been traded away have been removed.
2. Players who have been lost for the season due to injury have been removed.
3. Players who were acquired by trade are included; their ratings are from playing on their previous teams.

COMPLETE USER GUIDE
For complete details about how and why the Ratings work, and for very detailed information about how Real Team Ratings were developed and are calculated, please consult the USER GUIDE

ROCKETS = NUGGETS MATCHUP WITH RATINGS SHOWN BY TEAM

HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Quality of Players
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF FEB. 20 2009

ROCKETS
Yao Ming 1.008
Ron Artest 0.765
Luis Scola 0.716
Carl Landry 0.695
Kyle Lowry 0.591
Aaron Brooks 0.582
Von Wafer 0.580
Shane Battier 0.524
Brent Barry 0.503
Chuck Hayes 0.429

NUGGETS
Nene Hilario 0.864
Carmelo Anthony 0.860
Chauncey Billups† 0.859
Chris Andersen 0.755
J.R. Smith 0.749
Kenyon Martin 0.724
Renaldo Balkman 0.716
Anthony Carter 0.652
Linas Kleiza 0.558
Dahntay Jones 0.424

SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect Player? Is there Such a Thing? 1.000 and more
Historic Super Star 0.950 and more
Super Star 0.850 0.949
A Star Player; An Extremely Good Starter 0.775 0.849
A Great Player; A Solid Starter 0.700 0.774
Major Role Player 0.650 0.699
Role Player 0.600 0.649
Minor Role Player 0.550 0.599
Very Minor Role Player 0.500 0.549
Poor Player at This Time 0.450 0.499
Very Poor Player at This Time 0.350 0.449
Extremely Poor Player at This Time / Disaster and less 0.349

HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Quantity of Players
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF FEB. 20 2009

ROCKETS
Yao Ming 1453.20
Luis Scola 1064.25
Ron Artest 890.00
Carl Landry 723.85
Aaron Brooks 621.70
Kyle Lowry 621.65
Shane Battier 464.65
Von Wafer 402.40
Brent Barry 273.15
Chuck Hayes 228.30

NUGGETS
Chauncey Billups† 1322.40
Nene Hilario 1303.00
Kenyon Martin 1050.05
Carmelo Anthony 1034.90
J.R. Smith 919.45
Anthony Carter 765.75
Linas Kleiza 668.90
Chris Andersen 584.40
Dahntay Jones 379.50
Renaldo Balkman 267.65

===========SUB RATINGS===============

HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS
DEFENDING SUB RATINGS
Tracked and Hidden Defending
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF FEB. 20 2009

ROCKETS
Yao Ming 0.564
Ron Artest 0.481
Chuck Hayes 0.355
Shane Battier 0.338
Brent Barry 0.304
Luis Scola 0.296
Carl Landry 0.252
Aaron Brooks 0.187
Kyle Lowry 0.177
Von Wafer 0.163

NUGGETS
Nene Hilario 0.493
Chris Andersen 0.431
Kenyon Martin 0.415
J.R. Smith 0.409
Renaldo Balkman 0.379
Carmelo Anthony 0.362
Anthony Carter 0.329
Chauncey Billups† 0.293
Linas Kleiza 0.201
Dahntay Jones 0.195

HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS
OFFENSE SUB RATINGS
Tracked and Hidden Defending
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
AS OF FEB. 20 2009

ROCKETS
Yao Ming 0.872
Luis Scola 0.683
Carl Landry 0.643
Ron Artest 0.632
Von Wafer 0.575
Aaron Brooks 0.526
Shane Battier 0.456
Kyle Lowry 0.424
Brent Barry 0.418
Chuck Hayes 0.374

NUGGETS
Chauncey Billups† 0.645
Carmelo Anthony 0.574
Nene Hilario 0.483
J.R. Smith 0.451
Renaldo Balkman 0.412
Anthony Carter 0.398
Linas Kleiza 0.383
Kenyon Martin 0.380
Chris Andersen 0.360
Dahntay Jones 0.282

================================================

ROCKETS = NUGGETS MATCHUP WITH COMBINED SORTS

HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Quality of Players
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
Through Feb. 20 2009

Yao Ming Houston 1.008
Nene Hilario Denver 0.864
Carmelo Anthony Denver 0.860
Chauncey Billups Denver 0.859
Ron Artest Houston 0.765
Chris Andersen Denver 0.755
J.R. Smith Denver 0.749
Kenyon Martin Denver 0.724
Renaldo Balkman Denver 0.716
Luis Scola Houston 0.716
Carl Landry Houston 0.695
Anthony Carter Denver 0.652
Kyle Lowry Houston 0.591
Aaron Brooks Houston 0.582
Von Wafer Houston 0.580
Linas Kleiza Denver 0.558
Shane Battier Houston 0.524
Brent Barry Houston 0.503
Chuck Hayes Houston 0.429
Dahntay Jones Denver 0.424

SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS
Perfect Player? Is there Such a Thing? 1.000 and more
Historic Super Star 0.950 and more
Super Star 0.850 0.949
A Star Player; An Extremely Good Starter 0.775 0.849
A Great Player; A Solid Starter 0.700 0.774
Major Role Player 0.650 0.699
Role Player 0.600 0.649
Minor Role Player 0.550 0.599
Very Minor Role Player 0.500 0.549
Poor Player at This Time 0.450 0.499
Very Poor Player at This Time 0.350 0.449
Extremely Poor Player at This Time / Disaster and less 0.349

HOUSTON ROCKETS VS DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION
Quantity of Players
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
Through Feb. 20 2009

Yao Ming Houston 1453.20
Chauncey Billups Denver 1322.40
Nene Hilario Denver 1303.00
Luis Scola Houston 1064.25
Kenyon Martin Denver 1050.05
Carmelo Anthony Denver 1034.90
J.R. Smith Denver 919.45
Ron Artest Houston 890.00
Anthony Carter Denver 765.75
Carl Landry Houston 723.85
Linas Kleiza Denver 668.90
Aaron Brooks Houston 621.70
Kyle Lowry Houston 621.65
Chris Andersen Denver 584.40
Shane Battier Houston 464.65
Von Wafer Houston 402.40
Dahntay Jones Denver 379.50
Brent Barry Houston 273.15
Renaldo Balkman Denver 267.65
Chuck Hayes Houston 228.30

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ROCKETS VS NUGGETS
SUMMARY IN TERMS OF REAL PLAYER RATING SCALE CATEGORIES

HISTORIC SUPERSTARS
Yao Ming, Rockets 1.008

SUPERSTARS
Nene Hilario Denver 0.864
Carmelo Anthony Denver 0.860
Chauncey Billups Denver 0.859

STARS
None on either team

OUTSTANDING / SOLID STARTERS
Ron Artest Houston 0.765
Chris Andersen Denver 0.755
J.R. Smith Denver 0.749
Kenyon Martin Denver 0.724
Renaldo Balkman Denver 0.716
Luis Scola Houston 0.716

MAJOR ROLE PLAYERS
Carl Landry Houston 0.695
Anthony Carter Denver 0.652

ROLE PLAYERS
None on either team

MINOR ROLE PLAYERS
Kyle Lowry Houston 0.591
Aaron Brooks Houston 0.582
Von Wafer Houston 0.580
Linas Kleiza Denver 0.558

VERY MINOR ROLE PLAYERS
Shane Battier Houston 0.524
Brent Barry Houston 0.503

POOR PLAYERS
Chuck Hayes Houston 0.429
Dahntay Jones Denver 0.424

QUEST NOTES ABOUT THE ROCKETS—NUGGETS MATCHUP
Carmelo Anthony is improved from a month ago, which slightly increases the Nuggets chance of winning a playoff series against anyone. On the other hand, Linas Kleiza is really starting to have a miserable year now, and J.R. Smith has become even more inconsistent than he was last year, something that would have been regarded as absurd if you did not see it with your own eyes.

The Houston Rockets are one of the more likely possible matchups for the Nuggets in the playoffs. Very significantly, if the Nuggets play the Rockets, they could possibly win it now, due to the Rockets loss of their second best player, Tracy McGrady, due to an injury. It's not out of the question anymore, but the odds remain against it.

Also, the Rockets are going with Aaron Brooks at PG now that Rafer Alston is traded to the Magic. Brooks has rated only as a minor role player so far. Although he will undoubtedly rise to at least role player, Alston was the better bet for the Rockets for the playoffs.

Despite the above, I am as of now still predicting a Rockets win over the Nuggets in the playoffs, should they meet. If forced to predict the result in games, I would say Rockets 4 Nuggets 2, but I would be just surprised somewhat and not shocked at Rockets 4 Nuggets 3.

Let's check how the Nuggets' ratings have changed in the last month:

DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
Through Jan. 15 2009

Chauncey Billups 0.909
Nene Hilario 0.845
Renaldo Balkman 0.830
Carmelo Anthony 0.821
J.R. Smith 0.787
Chris Andersen 0.763
Kenyon Martin 0.744
Anthony Carter 0.637
Linas Kleiza 0.552
Dahntay Jones 0.455

DENVER NUGGETS
REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
Through Feb. 20 2009

Nene Hilario 0.864
Carmelo Anthony 0.860
Chauncey Billups 0.859
Chris Andersen 0.755
J.R. Smith 0.749
Kenyon Martin 0.724
Renaldo Balkman 0.716
Anthony Carter 0.652
Linas Kleiza 0.558
Dahntay Jones 0.424

With Carmelo Anthony improved and with a truly startling number of quality players showing up in the Nuggets ratings, with eight players who are major role players or better, it may be time to start considering the Nuggets more seriously. Not me yet, but maybe you.

What I need to consider the Nuggets seriously for the playoffs is a change at 2-guard. Were J.R. Smith to start and were Dahntay Jones' minutes be reduced substantially, the Nuggets could possibly defeat the Rockets now that Tracy McGrady and Rafer Alston are gone. The Rockets advantage would be reduced to a very small amount, and who won would be mostly based on playoff experience and coaching. Whoever played better and smarter would win a probably close series. I would still say Rockets but would not be shocked if the Nuggets won in this matchup.

But with Dahntay Jones playing a lot of minutes, and J.R. Smith still relegated to a "black sheep type role", the Rockets remain favored, although not by anywhere near as much as they were when they had Rafer Alston and especially Tracy McGrady.

ADDED 1 HOUR AFTER ABOVE WAS POSTED
I just noticed that if you look closely, the Rockets' offensive sub ratings are better than the Nuggets' by more than the Nuggets' defending sub ratings are better than the Rockets.' This is another clue I think that the Nuggets can not in fact defeat the Rockets in the playoffs this year.

On the other hand, the Rockets are playing it risky with Aaron Brooks as PG and just Lowry as a backup. Although most likely no team in my life time will ever be as lost at PG as the Nuggets were last April, the Rockets can not exactly rest easy regarding their PG situation for the playoffs yet.

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Another Year, Another Group of Frustrated and Fooled Nuggets Fans

Having in fact predicted that the Nuggets would not win more than 43 games this season, I knew the Nuggets were not going to win a playoff series from day one of this season, so I produced my annual George Karl Isn't Going to Win a Playoff Series Report early this year.

Then too there is the Laugh Out Loud that Dahntay Jones is Going to Start in the Playoffs Report.

And don't forget this posting reporting that the world's highest volume basketball writer David Friedman, who in fact is very rarely wrong about anything, agrees with me that the Nuggets can most likely not win a playoff series. Unlike Friedman and I, most NBA basketball writers are confused about the Nuggets, and trying to ignore the Nuggets and are not making predictions one way or the other.

And there is also this report on how Carmelo Anthony is no where near as good as he was in recent years, and that as a result the Nuggets, unlike the teams that will win playoff series, have no real power offensive, go to guy anymore.

And there are many other reports, including the January report that really annoys Nuggets fans even though I was just reporting in a very frank way, and was not intending to nor wanting to annoy, titled Rose Colored Glasses.

There are only two known ways the Nuggets could win a series. They could be lucky enough to play a team with a key player or two not available due to injuries. The only other way is if they play a team that is just as clueless and/or as inexperienced as they are regarding the playoffs, and there really are not any, although I have a few doubts about Dallas since, for one thing, they as number one seed lost to the 8th seed Golden State Warriors a few years ago..

I'm as stupidly optimistic as the next guy about this, that, and the other thing in life, but when it comes to basketball, I decided I was going to turn over a new leaf and not be stupidly optimistic with my reports. And I don't regret it, and I won't regret it even if somehow the Nuggets do win a playoff series. In my basketball reports, I'm never going to be looking like this:



What's interesting also about this strange Nuggets winning is that I think, generally, that a different group of fans thinks the Nuggets can win a playoff series this year than were thinking that last year. The Nuggets have co-opted a whole new group of soon to be frustrated believers with their clever but ultimately limited basketball strategies and tactics.

Last year, those who know that a critical mass of superstar and star players are necessary to win in the playoffs were thinking that the Nuggets could possibly win a playoff series, despite their, to put it nicely, questionable methods of playing the game. Because the Nuggets. despite their disorganized offense and lacking defense, did in fact have that critical mass of superstars and stars. When the Lakers utterly decimated the Nuggets in the playoff series, we were rudely but through no fault of our own shown to be fools, mostly due to George Karl's coaching in general and to his inability to understand that you can not win a playoff series without a position-based guard strategy in particular.

Even I for a while last year underestimated just how lacking George Karl's way of managing a basketball offense is with respect to the NBA playoffs. For me, seeing how Anthony Carter was no longer the point guard in the playoffs was the ultimate slam in the face realization that George Karl is not qualified to be an NBA playoff coach.

This year, it's those who think defensive priority and pride is very important who are thinking the Nuggets could win a playoff series. I think it's largely a different group of people, not only because those who place a heavy emphasis on defense are generally a different group from those who simply consider the number of star players to be most important. Also, you could not have fully absorbed how the Nuggets were totally destroyed by the Lakers last April, and then how Marcus Camby was given away for just about nothing, and be confident right now that the Nuggets could win a series this year. So the people who think the Nuggets can win a series this year were more or less not around last year; with the kind of defending the Nuggets were doing last year, it would have been next to impossible for those who think that defending is crucial to think that they could ever win a series last year. Probably, the believers in defense were only light fans who were not closely following the team last year.

But what about the really hardcore Nuggets fans? Among those who were real fans both last year and this year, there have been claims that the fact that Marcus Camby has a defending style that does not feature lock down man to man defending makes giving him away for nothing alright. Which in turn means that the Nuggets might actually be better this year than last. There is a fundamental disagreement here in Nuggets Land, because both that Camby is not really a great defender and that the Nuggets are better defensively and better overall this year than last year are regarded as absurd by me and by those who think like I do. For the record, the defensive efficiency statistics have been showing that the Nuggets are no better and no worse defensively this year compared with last year.

Yes, there have been a lot of changes in the Nuggets from last year to this, many for the better, with the defensive changes being the most outstanding, more outstanding in fact than the change from Anthony Carter to Chauncey Billups at point guard. Because if the Nuggets had not become aggressive and proficient at defending, they would have been a losing team this year without any doubt.

But some things are a little worse, such as Carmelo Anthony and Linas Kleiza, and some problems are the same, such as the extreme inconsistency of J.R. Smith. The biggest thing that is worse is that the Nuggets do not have the star power they had last year anymore. True, Chris Andersen, Renaldo Balkman, and Nene are all stars this year, and are all much better than expected. This has been a big surprise to just about everyone who follows basketball.

But first time ever stars are not the same thing as veteran stars. In a soon to be posted "Denver Nuggets 2007-08 Real Player Ratings Revised With the Improved System" report, you will see quite plainly that the Nuggets disposed of their two highest quality players from last year to this: Marcus Camby and Allen Iverson. If you compare the 2007-08 ratings to the latest 2008-09 ratings, you will see that both Iverson and Camby last year played at a higher level than the three Nuggets stars are playing at this year (Nene, Billups, and Carmelo Anthony).

Unfortunately, the way I see it, both last year's and this year's group thinking the Nuggets might win a playoff series were and are going to be wrong the way I see it. Both groups have made use of the rose colored glasses that are distributed for free by the Nuggets' coaches and managers before and during every season.

Oh well, nobody and nothing is hurt if you believe in your team even if in actuality there is almost no chance they can win. You have to believe in something.

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