With the Pistons losing much more frequently this year than last year, lets see what reasons we can spot by comparing the Real Player Ratings and the Defending Sub Ratings.
DETROIT PISTONS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2007-08 REGULAR SEASON: LAST YEAR
Chauncey Billups 0.930
Rasheed Wallace 0.793
Amir Johnson 0.761
Richard Hamilton 0.734
Tayshaun Prince 0.724
Rodney Stuckey 0.648
Antonio McDyess 0.648
Jason Maxiell 0.620
Ronald Murray 0.586
Jarvis Hayes 0.531
Arron Afflalo 0.486
DETROIT PISTONS REAL PLAYER RATINGS
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON: THIS YEAR
Through Feb. 8, 2009
Rodney Stuckey 0.800
Allen Iverson 0.753
Antonio McDyess 0.736
Rasheed Wallace 0.721
Tayshaun Prince 0.715
Amir Johnson 0.704
Richard Hamilton 0.673
Kwame Brown 0.580
Jason Maxiell 0.560
Arron Afflalo 0.349
SCALE FOR THE ABOVE RATINGS
Perfect Player? Is there Such a Thing? 1.000 and more
Historic Super Star 0.950 and more
Super Star 0.850 0.949
A Star Player: An Outstanding, Above Normal Starter 0.775 0.849
A Very Good Player: A Solid Starter 0.700 0.774
Major Role Player 0.650 0.699
Role Player 0.600 0.649
Minor Role Player 0.550 0.599
Very Minor Role Player 0.500 0.549
Poor Player at This Time 0.450 0.499
Very Poor Player at This Time 0.350 0.449
Extremely Poor Player at This Time / Disaster and less 0.349
+++++++++ DEFENDING ========================
DETROIT PISTONS OVERALL DEFENDING SUB RATING
2007-08 REGULAR SEASON: LAST YEAR
Amir Johnson 0.468
Rasheed Wallace 0.453
Antonio McDyess 0.337
Tayshaun Prince 0.335
Arron Afflalo 0.275
Rodney Stuckey 0.270
Chauncey Billups 0.264
Jason Maxiell 0.245
Richard Hamilton 0.185
Jarvis Hayes 0.151
Ronald Murray† 0.124
DETROIT PISTONS OVERALL DEFENDING SUB RATING
2008-09 REGULAR SEASON
Through Feb. 8, 2009: THIS YEAR
Amir Johnson 0.533
Kwame Brown 0.499
Rasheed Wallace 0.468
Antonio McDyess 0.429
Allen Iverson† 0.422
Rodney Stuckey 0.398
Tayshaun Prince 0.371
Richard Hamilton 0.223
Jason Maxiell 0.191
Arron Afflalo 0.118
OBSERVATIONS
1. Rasheed Wallace is down substantially from last year to this year; last year he was in the star range and this year he's in the solid starter range.
2. At Point Guard, Chauncey Billups was substantially better last year than Rodney Stuckey is this year. At the same time though, Stuckey is far better this year than he was last year.
3. Richard Hamilton is down about the same amount as Wallace is; he has dropped from the solid starter range last year to the major role player range this year.
4. Aaron Afflalo is down big from last year to this year. He has dropped from the high end of the poor range last year to the border between very poor and extremely poor this year.
5. Amir Johnson has dropped from .761 to .704 this year; from the high end to the low end of the solid starter category.
6. Tayshaun Prince is down very slightly from last year to this year.
7. Jason Maxiell is down from .620 to .560, a substantial drop. Last year he was in the role player zone and this year he is in the minor role player zone.
8. Aside from Rodney Stuckey, who is up from .648 to .800, the only other Pistons player from last year who is better this year is Antonio McDyess. He was .648 last year and is .736 this year, a very nice increase. Last year he was on the border between role player and major role player, while this year he is in the solid starter range.
In summary, among the eight Pistons who were on the team both last year and htis year, only two are playing better this year: McDyess and Stuckey. One is about the same: Prince. And the other five out of the eight are down substantially from last year to this year: Wallace, Hamilton, Afflalo, Johnson, and Maxiell.
Now I know from internet experience that the Iverson haters will take great delight in blaming all of this on Allen Iverson. Somehow, to them it will be his fault that these five players are not playing as well as they did in recent years including last year. But of course unless Iverson is an alien from outer space who can take control of other players, he could not possibly have caused this, especially considering that he himself is down from last year as a Nugget, on account of being asked to reduce his offensive game so that the Pistons can maintain their heavy team focus and avoid being swamped by Iverson taking too many shots. So if the Iverson haters try to blame the Pistons being down on Iverson, they will, as is common actually, be making fools of themselves.
What are the reasons why the down Pistons are down? I would wager that having a rookie coach has been a partial cause, but there would probably have to be other reasons as well, reasons that are specific to each case.
To start with, Wallace is getting up in years now. He will be 35 years old in September.
Hamilton has taken many weeks to get into any rhythm, because his great chemistry with Chauncey Billups from several recent years was disrupted. Since Iverson plays both guard positions at once, and Hamilton much prefers a traditional point guard, Hamilton has especially sufferred while sharing the back court with The Answer. Even with Stuckey, thuogh, Hamilton did not play all that well in the first few weeks of this season. Lately, he is playing better with both Iverson and Stuckey, more so with Stuckey.
Aaron Afflalo's defending has gone down and become a big liablility to the team this year. His offense is not down by as much, but quite honestly it wasn't all that great last year either.
PF Amir Johnson is actually a better defender this year than last year, which means that his offense is down by a big amount. If Coach Michael Curry were wise, he would in practices work on the Stuckey / Johnson connection. Find out Amir Johnson's most effective ways to score and make sure Stuckey knows about them and can help him score. If this is not done, the Pistons may not be able to win a playoff series, since the Pistons need all of the offensive juicing they can get.
It's almost creepy, but PF-C Jason Maxiell is doiwn by almost exactly the same amount as are the other four Pistons who are down from last year to this year.. Maxiell's decline from last year to this year is due mostly to a decline in his defending, even though his defending was not very good last year to begin with. In fact, Maxiell's defending is the main reason why he is not as good a player as is Amir Johnson.
Despite the fact that the Pistons are still a good defensive team, there are three players who are not very good defenders this year: Hamilton, Afflalo, and Maxiell. Hamilton gets a pass from heavy criticism since he is such a great offensive players.
All in all, it's a major down year in Detroit. With five of eight Pistons down and only two of eight up, and with Iverson down from his historical averages by design, the Pistons are going to need to ramp things up if they are to win a playoff series or two. In future days and weeks, I will be getting into more things they can do to be able to win in the playoffs.
BUT WAIT, LET'S LOOK AT THINGS OPTIMISTICALLY
I will now demonstrate why the Pistons may be able to easily win a playoff series, and why they could win two and be in the East finals.
SUMMARY OF CHANGE FROM LAST YEAR TO THIS YEAR FOR 8 PISTONS
Wallace DOWN .793 TO .721
Hamilton DOWN .734 TO .673
Johnson DOWN .761 TO .704
Maxiell DOWN .620 TO .560
Afflalo DOWN .486 to .349
Prince SAME .724 TO .715
Stuckey UP .648 TO .800
McDyess UP .648 TO .736
So the "record" for the team is 2-5-1, if wins are gains and losses are drops.
If any one of the five who are down were to, regardless of how much down in the regular season, be up for the playoffs, and if every other player remained about the same, then the "record" would be 3-4-1, not much different from last year. Or, if any two were just to return to where they were last year, the "record would be 2-3-3, once again not much different from last year. And then the Iverson factor could put the Pistons over the top into the "deep in the playoffs zone".
So it is silly to give up now and say the Pistons have no chance to win a series or two this year. The basic problem for the Pistons is that too many players are down from last year to this year, which is actually not as bad a problem as it seems, because obviously the situation might change late in the regular and/or for the playoffs, since there are five players who we know can play much better than they have been.
Specifically, it probably comes down to Wallace, Hamilton, and Johnson, with Hamilton's scoring and Johnson's offense being the most promising areas that the Pistons could improve in enough to win a playoff series. But heck, even Afflalo coming up from the depths and getting some burn could help as well.
Contrary to what you may be thinking, this Pistons situation is a better situation than the Nuggets have, as well as being an almost opposite situation. The Nuggets' players are more up than down, especially if you expand the look to include players who were not on the team last year. The Nuggets have several players who have never in history played as well as they are playing this year, which sounds nice, but it's only the regular season, which is different in many ways from the playoff season. Whereas the regular season has been a big surprise, but not a science fiction type of surprise, in the real world, the Nuggets are not going to win a playoff series unless these never this good before players continue to be way, way above expectations and above history in the playoffs, which would be a truly science fiction type event.
