REAL PLAYER RATINGS (QUALITY) FOR THIS GAME
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS QUALITY
Greg Oden, C 0.773
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF 0.728
Joel Przybilla, C 0.652
Travis Outlaw, SF 0.641
Steve Blake, PG 0.563
Rudy Fernandez, SG 0.547
Brandon Roy, SG 0.483
Nicolas Batum, SF 0.058
Ike Diogu, PF -0.072
DENVER NUGGETS QUALITY
Nene, C 0.831
Chris Andersen, PF 0.812
Chauncey Billups, PG 0.789
J.R. Smith, SG 0.714
Linas Kleiza, SF 0.620
Kenyon Martin, PF 0.585
Anthony Carter, PG 0.509
Chucky Atkins, PG 0.239
Dahntay Jones, SG 0.203
SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
Historic Superstar for this game 1.400 and more
Superstar 1.050 to 1.399
Star 0.800 to 1.050
Very Good 0.650 to 0.799
Major Role Player 0.525 to 0.649
Role Player 0.450 to 0.524
Minor Role Player 0.400 to 0.449
Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 to 0.399
Poor Game or Extremely Importand Defender 0.275 to 0.349
Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 to 0.274
Disaster Game Regardless of Defending minus infinity to 0.199
****************************************************
REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION (QUANTITY) IN THIS GAME
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS QUANTITY
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF 28.40
Steve Blake, PG 22.50
Travis Outlaw, SF 20.50
Greg Oden, C 17.00
Brandon Roy, SG 15.45
Joel Przybilla, C 14.35
Rudy Fernandez, SG 9.85
Nicolas Batum, SF 0.75
Ike Diogu, PF -0.65
DENVER NUGGETS QUANTITY
Chauncey Billups, PG 33.15
Nene, C 32.40
J.R. Smith, SG 22.85
Kenyon Martin, PF 21.05
Linas Kleiza, SF 17.35
Chris Andersen, PF 17.05
Anthony Carter, PG 8.65
Dahntay Jones, SG 3.25
Chucky Atkins, PG 2.15
SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Players Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 40.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 36.0 to 39.9
Huge Game 32.0 to 35.9
Very Big Game 28.0 to 31.9
Big Game 24.0 to 27.9
Typical Average Game 20.0 to 23.9
Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 to 19.9
Way Below Average Game 12.0 to 15.9
Bad Game 9.0 to 11.9
Really Bad Game 5.0 to 8.9
Total Disaster minus infinity to 4.9
SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME
FOR NON-STARTING PLAYERS
Only Some Non-Starters Can Ever Fly This High, but Not Very Often! 33.0 and more
Massive and Memorable Game 29.0 to 32.9
Huge Game 25.0 to 28.9
Very Big Game 21.0 to 24.9
Big Game 17.0 to 20.9
Typical Non-Starter Game 12.0 to 16.9
Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 to 11.9
Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter or Limited Minutes 6.0 to 8.9
Bad Game Even for a Non-Starter or Very Limited Minutes 3.0 to 5.9
Disaster: Nothing Much to Report minus infinity to 1.9
THE HIGHEST QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
Star during minutes on the court: Greg Oden
Star during minutes on the court: LaMarcus Aldridge
Very Good during minutes on the court: Joel Przybilla
Very Good during minutes on the court: Travis Outlaw
DENVER NUGGETS OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES
Star during minutes on the court: Nene
Star during minutes on the court: Chris Andersen
Star during minutes on the court: Chauncey Billups
Very Good during minutes on the court: J.R. Smith
Very Good during minutes on the court: Kenyon Martin
THE GREATEST POWER PERFORMERS OF THIS GAME
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS POWER PERFORMERS
Very Big Game: LaMarcus Aldridge
Very Big Game: Travis Outlaw
DENVER NUGGETS POWER PERFORMERS
Huge Game: Chauncey Billups
Huge Game: Nene
Big Game: Chris Andersen
USER GUIDE FOR THIS TYPE OF REPORT
ULTIMATE GAME BREAKDOWN--PLAYERS REPORT EXPLAINED(Last edited Dec. 8, 2008)
This is a "just the important facts please, and give them to me quick" type of report. I will in some cases do a very limited amount of commentary at the bottom of this type of report, but it will really be just notes for commentary that will be elsewhere in the near future. In some cases there will be no comments at all.
With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players report, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone like me can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be.
The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows:
POSITIVE FACTORS
Points 1.00 (at par)
Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00
Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60
Number of FTs Made 0.00
Assists 1.75
Offensive Rebounds 1.15
Defensive Rebounds 1.25
Blocks 1.60
Steals 2.15
NEGATIVE FACTORS
3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00
2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85
FTs Missed -0.85
Turnovers -2.00
Personal Fouls -0.80
ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT
3-Pointer Made 4.00
2-Pointer Made 2.60
Free Throw Made 1.00
3-Pointer Missed -1.00
2-Pointer Missed -0.85
Free Throw Missed -0.85
ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT
3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200
2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246
1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459
ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT
Assist/Turnover Ratio That Yields 0 Net Points: 1.143
QUALITY (RPR) AND QUANTITY (RPP)-AN EXPLANATION
RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (all the good things minus all the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court.
Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did.
Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time.
The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless.
Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender.
Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot!
EDITING AND PUBLISHING PLAN-MAIN DETAILS (Last Edited Dec. 21, 2008)
Most of the commentaries I do are in "Game/Team/League Reports" and in Fast Breaks". Game/Team/League reports are, with any luck, going to be produced for about 20 Nuggets and for about 20 Pistons games this season. Ultimate Game Breakdowns: Players, such as the one here, will be done for those same games. Plus there will be about 10 more Nuggets and 10 more Pistons Game Breakdowns for games for which there will be no article report. There will be a few other "wildcard" Game Breakdowns.
So in total, at least 70 of these relatively easy to produce but very informative Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players reports are scheduled for the regular season. At least 40 Game/Team/League Reports are planned.
Ultimate Game Breakdown-Coaching reports are done for every game that has a Game/Team/League Report.
More of every type of report will come out during playoffs season; I won't bore you with those details.
The games that get the full treatment have been very carefully chosen to be the most important games, which are generally the games against the best teams. Full treatment including the kitchen sink report games have been chosen from among only games where neither team is at a disadvantage due to playing on back to back nights. Other internet basketball "experts" are really wasting their time to some extent when they report on a game where one team was playing on back to back nights and the other team was not, because the great majority of those games are almost automatically won by the team that has more rest. I used to do those stupid games, but I'm not doing them anymore, because I keep trying to get better and better at understanding and teaching basketball, so I make changes such as this.
DECEMBER 16 EDITING CHANGES
As of December 16, two very important changes were made in the editing plan. These changes are most likely the finishing touches for a plan which has gone through many developmental phases during 2008, and now is ready to be the operational plan for 2009 and for hopefully many years thereafter. We went from complete chaos to a finely tuned editing plan ready for prime time. It took many, many hours of work and iterations.
First, the tight tie-in between Fast Breaks and Game/Team/League Reports (GTLRs) was relaxed. For several months, the evolving editing plan was envisioning that all Fast Breaks would be incorporated in full in ensuing GTLRs. The new plan is that some of the Fast Breaks will stand on their own.
In conjunction with this change, it was necessary to adobt a new production measurement system. We decided to use number of words for this. The word count tool in Microsoft Word makes this feasible. Despite this change, the majority and probably the great majority of Fast Breaks will still be picked up, expanded upon, and improved to some extent in ensuing GTLRs.
An implication of this change is that we are no longer going to be promising a specific number of GTLRs anymore. But we are now pledging to produce 20,000 words or more a month during the NBA season. And we are still going to be pledging a specific number of statistical reports, such as Ultimate Game Breakdown: Players reports, Real Team Ratings reports, and various kinds of Real Player Ratings reports, and so forth.
The other big change is that GTLRs will no longer automatically cover the particular game they are tied to to any extent. Really good or important games will still be covered in detail. Other games will be covered briefly, as has been increasingly the case in recent months and years. The new change is that now, some games, usually near routs or routs where the larger issues being discussed in lieu of particular games played out, will hardly be mentioned at all.
When non-game topics are considered more deserving of the limited editorial space and time available, they will get the coverage instead of relatively lopsided particular games. Technically, within the editorial plan, all GTLRs will still be tied to individual games, all of which have been carefully chosen in advance to be the most important games for the team.
An implication of this change is that I will no longer automatically reference a game score in GTLR titles. If there is a score in a title, it means that the game will be covered in some detail. If there is no score in the title, it means the report will be one that skips the individual game and goes into topics that are broader than any particular game.
